Saturday Discussion : Focus is on Tuesday

In the ever changing weather world, we’re always focused on the next major event.  So to briefly summarize the next couple days of weather, things will be quiet and cold.  Saturday and Sunday will both see highs in the low to mid 30s, and a decent amount of sun.  Sunday night we could see a few flurries or even a snow shower… but nothing that should cause any real headaches.  That leads us into the start of the work week… and the approaching winter storm for Tuesday…

This winter has been packed full of storms that cut inland.  That is, rather than track along the coast as a nor’easter… storms are developing in the southern plains, tracking northeastward, into the Great Lakes… before redeveloping over the northeast and heading into Canada.  The theme has been rather persistent… with the last several storms following a path of some similarity.  This storm looks no different…

We can hear the snow lovers cries of agony as we type these words.  This pattern is not a friend to winter weather lovers, the only thing worse is a winter without any snow at all.  We can get into the reasons why this trend continues to occur… but that’s best saved for another post, or a “fireside chat” on a Facebook Live stream.

For this storm at least, we’ve got cold air settling in place over the weekend.  That cold air will be reinforced on Monday, behind a weak cold front.  This air isn’t bitter cold, but it’s cold enough to get the job done… and set the stage for wintry weather.  A storm will develop over the plains states, and push toward the Great Lakes once again.  A strong high pressure over SE Canada will feed low level cold air into the northeast.  This cold air will butt up against the Appalachian Mountains, in an event known as “cold air damming”.  The warm air will ride up over top of the cold air, and gradually provide a wide variety of wintry precipitation.

Here in the Hudson Valley, we’re likely to start with snow early on Tuesday… the timing of which will be fine tuned in the coming days.  The snow will likely last for a period of 3 to 6 hours, before mixing with and changing to sleet pellets.  The sleet could last for a couple hours before mixing with and changing to freezing rain, and possibly even plain rain before ending Tuesday night.  This scenario could still provide us with 3 to 6 inches of snow, and a quarter inch of sleet with another quarter inch of glazed ice on top.  This will make travel on Tuesday a mess, and depending on timing, result in a bunch of school delays and cancellations.  So anyone with Tuesday plans will want to keep a close eye on this situation.

Keep in mind… this is all based on the current and most likely scenario being correct.  We’re still 3.5 days away, and as the graphic above indicates, if the primary storm over the Midwest is weaker, and the coastal storm develops quicker… it would mean more snow, and less ice for the Hudson Valley.  The issue is, the trend with these scenarios in previous storms, has not been to a colder solution.  Meaning, it’s not looking very likely that this will become a mostly snow event.  That said… stranger things have certainly happened with computer modelling, and certain key features could change.  So you’ll want to stay up to date each day as we get closer.  What is for sure… is that there will be a storm.  We just have to figure out the details in the coming days.

Thanks for all your continued support!

14 thoughts on “Saturday Discussion : Focus is on Tuesday

  1. thanks Bill for the new up date. i will be following on fireside chat. i Appreciate all you do to keep us informed about the weather. how strong and powerful are these winds this morning? how much damage will they do to mother Nature?

  2. I love winter and snow! Yet wouldn’t know what to do without your reports. Truly appreciate the updates and detailed explanations.

  3. Loving winter so far. My place in Accord has had two significant snow events (more than 10-inches); We had the ice storm; and we’ve gotten a couple of nice warm ups that cleared away the old snow, gave the salty roads a clean washdown with heavy rain; and then sunny clear cold days. What’s not to love?!

  4. Any difference in the forecast (as far as change-overs/snow amounts/etc) for the Catskills, especially the western end of Sullivan County?

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