Saturday Discussion : Warmth Erodes Away

Friday was absolutely gorgeous across the Hudson Valley, with widespread highs in the 70s.  After the weeks of below average temperatures, Friday felt almost like a summer preview.  Regardless, for most people it was a very welcome change.

Now we have to deal with another type of change on Saturday.  Earlier in the week, Saturday looked like a great day, with sunshine and temperatures climbing well into the 70s.  However as we gathered more data through the week, it became clear that a frontal boundary would sink south, through the Hudson Valley early on Saturday.  That would cause the winds to shift around to the NE, and instead of a warm flow into the Hudson Valley… cold air will spend the day fighting its way into the region.

So lets look at the weather map first…

This is weather map for Saturday evening, and we’re starting with this, because this is the first time we’re seeing areas of drizzle appear on the map across the Hudson Valley.  Saturday will start with a good deal of sunshine, and more and more clouds will sink southward, into the Hudson Valley, during the day.  By sunset it should be mostly cloudy, with a few patchy areas of drizzle or spot showers to contend with.  If you have plans for Saturday… it will be dry, so you don’t have to worry about getting rained out.

Watch Out for Falling Temperatures

The story for Saturday… and really the weekend… is the falling temperatures.  After beautiful weather on Friday and temps in the 70s… we’ll have a strong NE wind on Saturday.  That will push cold air southwest, into the Hudson Valley all day.  You’ll notice the NE flow, just by looking at the temperature maps…

You can see the affects of the NE wind pushing colder temps down the valley.  Notice the warm temperatures in NJ and PA, into the low 80s!  But the cold filtering into the Hudson Valley will mean temps struggling into the 60s for the southern HV, and as you go northward, temps will struggle just to get into the 50s.  Basically the further north you go on Saturday… the colder the air will be.

The above temperatures are roughly as warm as it will get on Saturday.  As the afternoon progresses, temperatures will fall slowly… as the colder air sinks south.  But by around sunset… look just how chilly it will be in the region…The cold air means business, and by 8pm, any signs of warmth are all but erased from the weather map.  Some 70s are hanging on in eastern PA… but otherwise, 40s and even some upper 30s will be the story locally.  You’ll notice that the cold really begins to sink southward… by the lighter blues in the central and northern HV.  You can see where the higher elevations of the Hudson Valley are, based on the shading of the temperature map.  Because the cold air will be heavier, and sink to the valley floor.  So the last places to get cold… will actually be the higher elevations.

So the cold sinks in, and then is here to stay through Sunday.  Temps on Sunday won’t get out of the 30s in many areas, and where it does… low 40s are the best you have to look forward to.  A very raw day setting up for Sunday.

But beyond just ‘raw’… we actually have Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the higher elevations of the region.  Once the cold really settles in, the higher elevations could fall below freezing… and we could see the light showers and patchy drizzle… become freezing drizzle and light sleet.  Icy conditions could become a concern for the high elevations and the northern areas… and possibly even for the lower elevations on Sunday… check out this simulation…

SIMULATED RADAR: 2pm Saturday – 8am Monday

First off, the Hudson Valley won’t see a lot of precipitation until late Sunday night, early Monday morning.  But areas of drizzle, patchy fog, and spotty rain showers will be possible pretty much from sunset on Saturday through sunrise on Monday.  As the colder air filters into the region… the coldest areas (higher elevations) could see air temperatures fall below freezing… causing for some icy spots on sidewalks and untreated roads.  This would be confined to the Catskills and higher elevations of the northern Hudson Valley.

As the cold layer of air becomes thicker on Sunday… we could actually see areas of light sleet develop.  The cold layer of air could become thick enough for the rain drops to freeze into ice pellets, and we’ll have to watch for that on Sunday.  Again… the precipitation is very light, so we don’t anticipate widespread problems at this time… but it’s mid April for crying out loud… so it’s an issue we’ll need to watch.

So in closing… an ugly turn of events for our weather, Hudson Valley.  As we wave goodbye to the warmth, and watch the cold air blast into the Hudson Valley once again.  Saturday won’t be gorgeous… but temperatures will at least be near average, so the day should be a nice one overall… just not as nice as Friday.

We’ll have updates as we go through the weekend.  Have a great Saturday!

2 thoughts on “Saturday Discussion : Warmth Erodes Away

  1. APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
    Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
    Memory and desire, stirring
    Dull roots with spring rain.
    Winter kept us warm, covering
    Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
    A little life with dried tubers.
    T.S. Eliot (1888–1965). The Waste Land. 1922.

Leave a Comment