Severe Threat or Heavy Rain?

Data this morning certainly does not paint a slam dunk in terms of severe weather this afternoon. The reason the data has been at odds with one another is linked to how the data is handling showers and cloud cover developing out ahead of the incoming front. Early cloud cover and even scattered precipitation will severely diminish the atmospheres ability to destabilize this afternoon ahead of the incoming front. As we have learned many times before, sunshine is an important element for severe weather to develop. A look at the current conditions this morning, when compared to both hires models, we believe the severe risk is a bit diminished for most of the region.  The exception being our southern most counties where sunshine has a greater chance of making a decent appearance.

Here’s a look at both the HRRR and NAM as of this morning.

As you can see, the NAM still blows up some convection but not until the front reaches the I95 corridor. The HRRR is even less impressed with the potential.  With that said, heavy rain, gusty winds, and even some imbedded thunderstorms are still likely. This is really to address the lowered risk of severe weather this afternoon, as usual it’s always best to prepare for the potential but it does appear to be more isolated at the moment with some potential for scattered strong storms to develop as well. All folks with outdoor plans should continue to be prepared for showers and storms breaking out by noon and persisting into the early evening and overnight as the front moves NW to SE through the region.

The highest risk period for strong to severe storms looks to be between 2-7pm with the later time frame being out southern most zones. We will keep things updated via FB feed which is now available on the website home page and better suited for rapid and short updates. Keep an eye on that sunshine, if we can get a few hours of good daytime heating, the severe threat will increase once again.

 

2 thoughts on “Severe Threat or Heavy Rain?”

  1. Power out for hours in Pleasant Valley, Central Hudson restoration times keep getting pushed: 7pm, 10pm, 1am???

    How are they still allowed to operate?

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