Severe Weather Recap – Wednesday June 30, 2021

Just taking a moment to re-share the microburst information from yesterday. We created a map to help visualize the area of damage, and included the damage reports from the National Weather Service.
This map helps to serve as an explainer regarding severe weather outbreaks, and how we forecast them. The Hudson Valley as a whole, had only a couple reports of severe weather on Wednesday. Some down trees in Middletown, some storm damage in NW Sullivan county, and the microburst in Wappingers Falls. While the impact to the region as a whole may have been low… for the areas affected by the microburst, your impacts are anything but “low”. The damage was significant in portions of Wappingers Falls, and many in that area were affected. When we issue a StormPact graphic for low impact… we are looking at the totality of the event for the region. Since a specific storm’s location and intensity are impossible to forecast, we have to generalize based on the expected…
– number of storms expected to develop
– intensity of storms expected to develop
– area and population expected to be impacted
So when we issue the StormPact graphic we did on Wednesday, it does not mean that you won’t be impacted by a severe thunderstorm. It merely means your chances might be statistically low. All it takes is one supercell storm to intensify and travel through a highly populated area to cause significant damage. That’s why we always treat severe weather threats with respect, and advise residents to take the appropriate amounts of caution.
Wednesday, June 30th StormPact Graphic:

So as an example… using our StormPact graphic from Wedensday (Average confidence; Low impact; Isolated Outages), we would suggest residents be aware that the potential for severe weather exists, but that the odds of your specific location seeing severe (damaging wind gusts/ large hail) conditions are rather low… with us expecting only a couple severe reports across the entire HV. Always keeping in mind, what we saw in Wappingers on Wednesday is what can happen, should a severe T-Storm develop and move through your location.
 
One of our goals with the StormPact scale, is to try and help people have a better understanding about…
– how confident we are about our forecast
– how likely a severe weather event is
– how large of an area we expect to see severe weather
Severe weather threats can cause a lot of anxiety and uncertainty for residents, and while we can’t control the weather… and our ability to pinpoint where severe weather will occur is limited… we want to try and minimize your anxiety, and give you helpful information to plan your day.  Thanks for supporting and trusting HVW… we hope you have a safe and happy Independence Day weekend!

1 thought on “Severe Weather Recap – Wednesday June 30, 2021”

  1. Your explanation of the StormPact scale makes perfect sense. However, from a visceral POV it is misleading. When I saw this infographic on Wednesday it did sound like rain with insignificant thunder in the background, I did not even take the time to assure that my generator was fueled up and ready to go. I know from bitter experience that microbursts can be devastating to a very small area. We had one here on the southern 400 yards of Agor Lane, Mahopac several years ago that black us out for several days and knocked down so many trees that the road was impassible for that same length of time. Very few people outside this area knew of the disaster we in this tiny area were afflicted with. When microbursts are forecast for the region please present alarms that would be suitable for an enemy bombing attack.

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