Well there has been no shortage of action this spring and summer and the region really did dodge a bullet with yesterday’s severe weather event. The remnants of Beryl passed to our NE and triggered a historic severe weather event across western and northern NY. In total 42 tornado warnings were issued, which is the most ever in NY history. In addition there has been at least 7 confirmed tornadoes across three NWS offices, this not including wind damage reports and extensive flash flooding as well. Check out this incredible footage of a tornado that occurred yesterday.
https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1811122341558006072?s=46
While I’m sure no one around here was hoping for that kind of impact, I know many were hoping for some rain. By the time the line of showers and storms reached our region it had lost all of its fuel and broke up. Those looking for rain, and for our viewers who are in fact plants, there may be some good news. A massive high pressure parked over the central Atlantic (Yes this the same high pressure that’s been pumping the tropics into the region) will help drive a developing low pressure into the Carolina’s, it will do so before it gets a chance to develop into a tropical depression.
In doing so it will also drive moisture up the east coast with a chance for some of that moisture to impact the region beginning tomorrow into Saturday. As of this evening the NAM and HRRR disagree on some of the details, with the HRRR bringing some rain into the region as early and midday, the NAM keeps bulk of precip south until evening. What they do agree on is that where heavier downpours are more persistent, localized rainfall amounts could exceed 1”. Here’s a look at where each model believes the heaviest rainfall will set up.
As you can see, there will be parts of the region who are relatively unscathed from the heaviest rainfall, and given the tropical origins of this moisture plume, some localized flash flooding is possible where heavier rainfall does become most persistent. We will of course keep an eye on radar trends for any flooding that may occur, at this point it appears to be an isolated threat. Don’t lose hope on your Saturday plans just yet, it appears the moisture will have pulled out of most of the region between 9am and noon from west to east. Then we can expect the warmth and humidity we’ve become so accustomed with to return.