A stalled frontal boundary will be the lead to rounds of rain and storms. We may see a few scattered storms pop up as early as this afternoon across parts of the region as daytime heating reaches it maximum, but the more widespread unsettled weather begins to kick of tomorrow afternoon as waves of rain and embedded storms track along a stalled boundary. The exact location of this boundary will be critical in how our weather evolves this weekend. Just south of the boundary temps will moderate fairly well and also support some decent instability for future convective development. Just north of this boundary it will be a cooler environment, more stable and just general passing periods of rain and heavier downpours.
As of today’s data it appears the boundary will likely be across the northern half of our region with the best chance of heavier showers and storms occurring along the i84 boundary and points south. The first chance of showers and storms is around noon Saturday with several more rounds likely into the later afternoon and early evening. This boundary will not progress much throughout the weekend, it will likely even drift back northward, this will keep the likelihood of periods of precipitation quite active through the entire weekend. A look at the total precipitation forecast for the weekend highlights this conversation well, with some parts of the region seemingly getting only a light rainfall of .25-.45” with areas only a short distance away eclipsing an inch of rainfall.
Where the heaviest rainfall occurs will be dependent on where the showers and storms are most consistent in their tracks through the region, this will be directly hitch pinned to where the boundary untimely stalls out. This weekend will mark a period of unsettled weather that will take us through next week with an almost constant risk of rainfall. The longer range precipitation forecast from this mornings Euro clearly paints this picture well with a widespread 2-4” of rainfall predicted between now and next weekend.