Storm Discussion : Tue PM Update

No major changes to the Preliminary Storm Forecast at this time.  We’ll have the ‘Finalized Storm Forecast’ later this evening, likely before 11pm… hopefully sooner if we can.  So let’s take a quick look at how things should unfold Wednesday morning…

Snow likely breaks out from west to east between 7:30 am and 9:30am from west to east across the Hudson Valley.  Once it begins to fall, it will quickly intensify and fall moderately.  A steady snow will fall straight through the noon hour, possibly heavy at times.  Expect reduced visibility, and rapidly deteriorating travel conditions.  Temps will be in the mid 20s… so the snow will accumulate on all surfaces.  If you’re going to try and get things done early on Wednesday… please be aware that once it begins, conditions will get treacherous quickly.

As we approach mid day, we’ll begin to see the milder air creep north through the Hudson Valley.  That means a transition from snow… to sleet and freezing rain, from south to north during the afternoon.  Here’s a snapshot of what things may look like by 1pm.

You’ll notice that the milder air at 850mb (cloud level), is quick to press northward.  By 1pm… anyone near or south of I-84 will begin to mix with sleet and freezing rain.  The further south you go… that earlier the transition to ice.  As you go north of I-84… the odds are good that it’s all snow into the early/mid afternoon.

Between 2pm and 5pm, we will continue to track that snow/ice line… as it moves further and further north.  The latest data, suggests that the snow mixes with or changes to sleet and freezing rain, all the way up to Kingston and even a bit north of there.  So we’re going to continue to monitor the situation, and have to make some minor adjustments to the final snowfall forecast this evening.

We’ll have another update in a few hours… as well as the final snowfall forecast later tonight.  Have a nice evening!