Now is a good time to make some course corrections to the forecast, we are at the magic hour where we know where the forecast has problems and where it doesn’t, so lets do a quick system check and adjustments to the ongoing forecast.
Previous Forecast vs Actual Observations:
- Temps cooling through a process called dynamic cooling to allow snow to fall despite previously warm surface temps ( OCCURRING)
- Snow falling heavy enough to overcome warm surfaces and create hazardous travel (OCCURRING)
- Gusty winds causing power outages (OCCURRING)
- Very localized snowfall that depends on precipitation rates and elevation with widely varying conditions (OCCURRING) (In some cases, two miles)
- Thunder accompanying heavier snowfall bands (REPORTED/OBSERVED)
- Forecast for more snow across the region than rain (OCCURRING)
- Downslope effect causing an area of less snowfall, with warming air (OCCURRING) and ultimately the reason for the next bullet point
- Snowfall forecast (WILL NOT VERIFY IN ALL LOCATIONS)
Forward Looking Forecast and Adjustments:
This has been well communicated as being a very complex storm for the last several days, in multiple forecasts and live broadcasts we highlighted all of what can go wrong with this forecast and to say the least it was a lot. We stand behind our forecast and were the first forecaster calling for any snow in our region outside of the Catskills just 48 hours ago. With that said we strive for perfection and we aim to deliver you all a forecast that is as close to flawless as possible, we went into this knowing there would be issues and even addressed last night the time frame in which these issues would reveal themselves by so we could adjust, that is what we are doing now. We realize and ave already fielded some comments of disappoint that if the forecast wasn’t right in your backyard the rest doesn’t count. We understand that and always try to prepare everyone for the best and worst case scenarios in these type of storms and we apologize for the areas where it won’t be right, lets get to it..
A look at the current Hires models and a comparison to all of your observations along with a look at current radar we have been able to determine the area where the snowfall part of the forecast doest not look to verify, now this are may expand or could even shrink a bit, but as of this hour (8AM) this is the zone with the highest probability of missing the forecasted snowfall amounts, the area is marked with a black box and has been overlaid on our final forecast. Below this image is the projected snowfall as of the latest run of the hires model, you can compare the two and see that the areas being impacted by the downslope, match up with the radar and all of your observations and in addition to the lower snowfall amounts being projected by this model, in the remainder of the region our forecast continue to look solid (for now). For areas within the black box we can expect that snowfall totals here will likely not even eclipse 1-3″ and in some cases not more than a coating is possible.
As you can see the forecast covered the variables and will also may still verify across a large portion of the region but despite that we will still field comments like we have already seen that we hyped the snow totals for clicks or we are always wrong etc etc. The fact is, if you actually read, or actually listened to the forecasts, facebook posts, hour long live streams and countless amount of effort and thought that went into todays forecast that has been described by Meteorologists with 30 years experience as the most difficult they can remember, you would have known that all of these outcomes were possible. We take what we do extremely seriously and brought attention to what was only a rainstorm 48 hours ago, sorry for the misses that will occur but forecasting nature will always be a humbling job that we love to do.
Here are the current outages across the region as well, please remember our utility crews are out in these dangerous conditions and away from their families fighting to keep our lights on, this was always a possibility and these numbers will likely continue to build..
Check here for updates from out friends at Central Hudson: https://stormcentral.cenhud.com