Sunday Discussion : Happy Independence Day!

Happy July 4th, Hudson Valley! We hope everyone has a wonderful and safe holiday! Weather wise, we do think that the weather will cooperate for the most part.
 
The upper level low pressure will continue to pull away today, and relinquish its grip over our weather. Clouds will mix with more and more breaks of sun as we go through the afternoon. That should also boost our temperatures into the mid 70s this afternoon. But the northerly flow and cool air mass means that those temps are still a good 5 to 10 degrees below average. Definitely not your “traditional” hot and sunny July 4th… but the weather should be nice enough to not put a damper on your holiday plans.
 
Looking forward… on the back side of the departing upper level low, the heat and humidity will quickly try to return back into the region. By Monday we’re near average, and by Tuesday we’re roughly 5 to 10 degrees ABOVE average. The humidity initially looked like it might not be as oppressive as last week… but now the guidance is starting to tell a different tale….
Projected Tuesday Highs & Heat Index for Poughkeepsie:
– GFS : 95°… heat index of 94°
– Euro : 92°… heat index of 97°
– NAM : 91°… heat index of 103°
The GFS has dry air over the Hudson Valley, but we think that’s an issue with the model. Other guidance is locking in on the humidity building, making for a hot and sticky mid week. But then relief arrives for the end of the week… so it’s likely a short burst of heat and humidity.
SEVERE T-STORM RECAP – Southern Orange County
This upper level low pressure has lingered over the Hudson Valley for multiple days, and underneath it there is strong upward motion.  That lift in the atmosphere is what has triggered the afternoon showers everyday the past 3 or 4 days.  On Friday however, we had a couple hours of sunshine add fuel to the equation in the form of heat and humidity.  This allowed a couple of those showers to strengthen into supercell T-Storms.  One of which developed near Warwick, and pushed ENE through Florida, Chester and Monroe, before weakening slightly as it moved across the river.
Radar Recap : Friday 7/2/21 5pm to 7pm.
The lift in the atmosphere resulted in quarter sized hail.  The highest supercell T-storm cloud tops have a hail stone develop, then as it falls toward the earth it gains moisture, but gets caught in an updraft, sending the stone back up, higher into the cloud… where the extra moisture re-freezes.  This process can repeat several times before the stone falls to the ground, and the more times it gets caught in the updraft, the larger the stone becomes.  Hence the more severe the storm, the larger the hail stone.  Unfortunately these can cause considerable damage to trees and property… as well as the potential for flash flooding from the torrential downpours that usually accompany these events.
The images of the damage and torrential rainfall were amazing… you guys always do a wonderful job of providing photo and video documentation of a severe event.  However, if you look at the National Weather Service storm reports… these 2 are the only ones you will find.  So to an outside observer, this event might not even be noticed.  That’s why we’re always encouraging more people to become trained spotters… to make sure the information gets recorded.
 
We’ll continue to watch everything, and you’ll find the latest updates on www.hudsonvalleyweather.com. Have a wonderful afternoon!

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