This time of year, the forecasts are supposed to be easier. The jet stream pushes north, into Canada, and we usually have tranquil weather… or afternoon showers and thunderstorms depending on the weather pattern. So stalled out frontal boundaries with rain showers that hug the edges of the Hudson Valley… are not welcome.
The reason is these things require a LOT of attention, and with it being ballet recital season, and outdoor party season… we don’t spend quite so much time analyzing computer model data to generate a picture perfect forecast on a storm system with a sharp cutoff. Long story short… Sunday doesn’t look as nice as previously expected.
Our earlier post for this weekend showed that the front was expected to sink further south and spare the Hudson Valley. Of course, as luck would have it, the steering winds were not as strong, and the boundary has drifted further north. This creates a VERY close call for the lower half of the Hudson Valley…
Futurecast Radar : 8am Sunday – 2am Monday
Notice the soaking rain generally stays southwest of the NY/NJ and NY/PA borders. But between 12pm and 6pm… rain showers are likely to creep northward, into the lower Hudson Valley.
Now, this radar’s “bark” is likely worse than its “bite” (at least with regard to the Hudson Valley). The northern edge of the rain is likely to evaporate a bit, and not reach the ground (especially north of I-84). But areas from I-84 on south, could see periods of light to moderate rain showers this afternoon. In terms of total rainfall amounts, here are our ideas…
You’ll notice a DRAMATIC cut off from nearly 1 inch of rain just south of the NY/NJ border… to no measurable rainfall in Poughkeepsie. So it should come as no surprise that the lower half of the Hudson Valley is VERY uncertain with regards to rainfall. They could see next to no rainfall… or over a half inch… all depending on the exact placement of this band of rain. Our best guess is shown above… which has areas like Port Jervis, Warwick, and Nyack seeing nearly a half inch of rain. Areas like Middletown, Newburgh, and Monticello… could see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain this afternoon… it all depends on the exact placement of the rain.
So not the greatest of Sunday afternoons… unless you live north of Monticello, New Paltz and Poughkeepsie. Those areas will see a lot of clouds, but should remain dry (although a spot shower cant be ruled out). But the further north you go… the more chances for sunshine you’ll see.
Have a nice Sunday afternoon… no matter what the weather.