Sunday Night Discussion : Snowfall Recap 2/13/22

A weak wave of energy moving along the passing cold front resulted in another small snow event for the Hudson Valley.  The same places that have seen these events previously this winter, saw it yet again on Sunday.  Computer guidance was rather unimpressed with this event, suggesting that the region would see a coating to 2 inches.  However the lift in the atmosphere was significant enough to give us an overachiever.  Nothing to get too excited about… but instead of a coating to an inch in many areas… places like Poughkeepsie saw 3 inches.

Computer Guidance Snowfall Projection:

Guidance significantly undershot the snowfall for the I-84 corridor and points north.  There wasn’t a SINGLE piece of guidance that suggested 2″+ for places like Poughkeepsie and Plattekill.  The only indication was that Saturday night the projected lift in the atmosphere over the Hudson Valley hinted at the potential for heavier snowfall rates.  However, it wasn’t enough to go out on a limb and forecast more than double what any other guidance was forecasting.  So we started with a forecast of a coating to 2″ for the whole region, with a best chance of 2″ south of I-84.  Then in the ‘Fireside Chat’ we said coating to 1″ north of I-84… 1 to 2 (maybe 3″) south of there.  Then after the fireside chat… as the snowband really began to develop with intensity, we went with coating to 2″… and 1 to 3 south of I-84.

In the end… did we under forecast the event for anyone from Monroe, to Newburgh, to Poughkeepsie… yeah.
Instead of a coating to 2″… those places saw 3 to 4 inches of snow… basically meaning our snowfall forecast was off by 1 to 2 inches in most places.  That’s called mother nature doing her thing.  Unpredictable heavy snow bands developing are guaranteed to throw your snow accumulations off by an inch or two.  Yeah, when you’re talking about a small event, that means you getting double the forecast snow amount… but its 2 inches… not 6 or 10.  In addition, it wasn’t the entire region.  On the north side of Pine Bush, we saw 1.5″, and in Pine Bush itself was maybe 2″.  The amount of snow you saw was dependent upon your relation to the heavier snow band that set up.

Again… this event was under forecasted.  But based on the reactions we saw by some of the comments, you’d have thought we forecasted a coating to 2 inches, and then 10″ to 12″ of snow fell across a widespread area.  We’re not sure if some folks are just stressed out by the events of the past couple years, or if the decorum on social media is sinking to new lows, lol.

Either way… hopefully some of you were able to enjoy the little bit of snow that fell around the region.  Thanks for continuing to support HVW!  Stay warm over the next few days!

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