Sunday Night Storm Discussion : On Target for Tuesday

Summary:
– Start time projected 9pm – 1am Monday Night
– Extended period of snow, with wintry mix possible
– Best chance of sleet and freezing rain I-84 on south
– Snow/Mix tapers off early Tuesday afternoon
 
We’ve got our preliminary forecast in place at this time, but as we get closer to the start of the winter storm, we continue to get more data, and a more clear picture of how this storm might play out.  This storm will push NE on Monday, but the radars early on Monday may look like the snow is about to begin… but the primary energy will linger back in the Tennessee valley, delaying the start time of this system.
 
We’ve continued to try and focus in on the snow/mix line, and where it will set up.  The snow/mix line has steadily shifted south over the last day or so… taking the Hudson Valley from concerns of an extended period of freezing rain, to an extended period of snow, with some mixing possible.
 
The Tuesday AM commute is going to be a real mess, with a period of moderate snow likely, possibly mixed with sleet at that time.  We would expect extensive school delays & closings, as well as very difficult travel conditions for those who must commute.  Be sure to plan for a longer than usual commute on Tuesday morning.  It’s possible this storm lingers long enough to cause issues for the PM commute as well.  We’ll have to monitor the progression of the storm.
 
With regards to snowfall accumulations… latest guidance suggests the ranges from the preliminary forecast may be a bit low.  For now, the preliminary forecast holds… but we would anticipate accumulations closer to the high end of the forecast ranges.  That means accumulations of 3, 4 or 5 inches being common for much of the HV… if the guidance trend it correct.
 
We will continue to look at this overnight, and have our Final Storm Forecast in the morning on Monday.  Have a nice evening!

19 thoughts on “Sunday Night Storm Discussion : On Target for Tuesday

  1. Oh For the Days when we had Weather forecasters instead of computer model readers. The Weather forecasts in general get worse and worse because of our reliance on computers instead true forecasting. Forecasts are all over the place even a couple of days out.

    • What do you think was better with weather forecasts that relied on humans doing calculations? Forecasts were always all over the place. They were just doing it slower, with less data and they were wrong or they weren’t. Now there are more models from more agencies, that just means there’s more sources for your forecast, not that they’re less reliable.

  2. steve,

    there was a very famous study done in the 1980s on “weather forecasters”. It concluded that if the TV weather person on the 6PM news got on every night and said “the weather tomorrow will be the same as it was today”, they would have been more accurate than they actually were. may want to check your memories; may have been “simpler times”, but they weren’t more accurate.

  3. Of all of the weather forecasts I look at each day I have to say that Hudson Valley Weather is THE MOST ACCURATE most of the time, so as a business owner with trucks out on the road every day I depend on them to help me dispach safely or decide when to stop operations.
    Sorry Steve, but I think we are very fortunate to have such a great service that is so frequently dead on. I don’t ever remember more accurate forecasts in the past. I’ve been living here in the Hudson Valley for 45 years…

    • Steve is so right. We should just look outside, stick our licked finger in the air, feel it in our bones and joints, and call-um like the old days.

  4. Steve, HVW is THE most accurate weather for our area. I lost all confidence in TWC once I started following Hudson Valley Weather. It’s not just about reading weather models and looking pretty for the camera – it’s about studying and really looking at it from all angles. I was born in CT in the 70’s, and the only time the weather forecasters were correct was when huge snowstorms (1978,) or hurricanes (Gloria,) were coming – not everyday weather. Even Dr. Mel Goldstein (who was considered the expert and taught at WestConn,) was off most of the time. HVW is ON most of the time.

  5. You guys have the best Hudson Valley weather forecasts.. Thank you for doing a great job for the Hudson Valley… I also love the storm discussions as they are happening on Facebook… Getting real time observations from the people of the Hudson valley… THANK YOU!!

  6. I agree with Tiffany about TWC, and forget about the NYC weather forecasters, they can’t seem to predict with any real accuracy HV weather. TWC tends to lump us in with NYC. The problem predicting for our area is all the different types of terrain. On any given day you can travel through rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow showers and heavy snow. Since the HVW guys live and work in our area they have a better handle on the situation and know how the radar should be read for our topography.

  7. Sounds like Steven No. 1 is a science denier? One must wonder how in the heck not having real-time data from all levels of the atmosphere, real-time data from oceanic to contintinental, air flow, pressure subtleties, all of it could be a bad thing vs. a TV personality-only telling what is real. (Oh wait, did I just stumble into politics? We all see how well the lack of facts is going there…) …lacking facts in the weather produces the same dismal outcomes. Keep on tracking, and thanks…the other Steve. (Who believes in science).

  8. Honestly, Steve–why are you here? HVW spends a ton of time analyzing, interpreting, explaining, and updating their forecasts to inform and help people. When their forecasts turn out to be off-base they explain, scientifically, the reasons why.

    You, on the other hand, spent YOUR time writing a pointless comment. Why don’t you get a weathervane, a thermometer, and a barometer, lick your typing finger and hold it up in the air, and do your own “true” forecast?

    Then set up a website and social media, attract followers and sponsors, and update at all times of the day and night (while you’re still working at your paying job).

    Looking forward to seeing what you come up with!

  9. Compared to in the past years, I have noticed frequent updating has been a bit lack. As the posting of this message, the recent information is dated Sunday evening. Better storm coverage as it was the last few years could be better this year.
    What happen to you guys you use to be frequent and update at all times?

  10. To all who feel the need to complain and criticize, Stop. You’re embarrassing. I love this site. It’s the go to for winter weather. Hands down

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