Sunday Night Update: Multiple Chances of Rain on the Way

Good evening everyone… Hope everyone is doing well and staying warm and safe.

There’s some precipitation heading our way here in the HVW area for Monday and then more Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Mondays weather event …

Precipitation will be in the form of rain.  The rain is coming from the southwest and moving east/northeast Reason for the precipitation being in the form of rain is due to the direction it’s coming from, the southwest and it’s dragging some warm air up along with it behind a warm front.

Temperatures are going to drop from the current 41° right now down to 30° by 5am Monday morning and then begin to rise to 40° by 1pm. The rain will reach our area by around 11am and spread across the entire HVW area and come to an end around 9pm Monday night. Rain totals of 0.25” to 0.75” are possible.

The higher terrain has a very slight chance of precipitation starting out as snow transitioning to sleet and then rain, and accumulating ice is also possible before changing over to all rain. This appears likely confined to only the highest peaks… but if you live in the Catskills, be alert to the potential.

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Temps will be just warm enough above the 32° freezing mark in both the valleys and higher terrain to be all rain. Rain looks to start around 7pm Tuesday night and last till around 1am Thursday morning. Rain totals of 1.25” to 2.75” .. very much needed rain to help with the drought.

Something to keep an eye on is, with the combination of heavy rain and snowpack melting from previous snows, there could be concerns for rapid rise in rivers and streams, but just not enough to go over their banks, but close enough to be put into a flood stage category. If you’re near rivers or streams, just be aware of your surroundings for this.

A strong cold front moves in just before the rain ends and changes the rain to snow, but as of the latest weather model update, very little snow accumulation is expected. The most concerning issue is, rain runoff freezing and creating black ice. The warm air will be replaced by very cold air very fast, called Flash Freeze . temps dropping rapidly.  This will need to be monitored closely as we get closer… because the timing of the precipitation and cold air arrival will be crucial.