Synopsis-
Start Time: 6AM- 10AM Sunday
End Time: 12AM- 5AM Monday
Extreme Cold – Temps in single digits & teens during event
– Heaviest Snow expected between 12pm Sunday and 12am Monday
– Snowfall Rates 1-4”+ per hour
– Low visibility
– Dangerous to impossible travel
Snowfall Accumulations:(See snow map)
South of I-287: 8″ to 12″ (6 to 8hrs of snow followed by 0.5″ to 2″ of sleet)
South of I-84: 12″ to 16″ (mixing with sleet is a concern)
I-84 corridor on North: 16″ to 20″ (all snow – Localized totals up to 24”)
Catskills: 20″ to 24″+ possible in highest elevations (localized 30” amounts across eastern facing slopes and ridges)
Light to moderate periods of snow possible throughout the day on Monday with additional accumulations.
Nerd ChatWe been tracking this storm together for about a week now, you’ve watched the ingredients from half way around the world come together and interact with one another to bring us what the next 24 hours has in store.
A glance at the current radar and ground observations tells us that our precipitation shield is advancing ahead of schedule. Temps across the region are abnormally cold especially when considering the amount of moisture about to clash with this airmass.
All available data continues to support our final forecast, in fact there could be arguments that where ever the banding decides to set up, our upper end of snowfall ranges likely could be surpassed.
Snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour may be pushed into the 2-4” per hr rate as mesoscale banding sets up and becomes stationary over parts of the region.
As of now, Ulster and Dutchess counties and points north have the highest probability of being in this zone. Across parts of the eastern Catskills, where terrain will help to enhance snowfall, we may see localized amounts to 30”. This has all the earmarks of a historic event across at least the northern parts of the region, if the upper end of the forecast is realized this would be a Top 10 January event, with some forecasts indicating a Top 5 event. Easy to lose perspective on storm history, for example at Albany whose record dates back to 1885- the 10th largest snow event in January is 13.9”. If Kingston NY can achieve its high end of 20” it would be the largest snowfall in over 20 years. We will dig more records when we are through this and the final flakes are measured. Remember we cover a large geographical area, not everyone will expierence this storm the same way.
Travel bans are in place across many parts of the region, limited to essential traffic. Please keep in mind that with snowfall rates of 1-4” per hour it is nearly impossible to keep up with road maintenance. It’s also likely that main roads will be prioritized over many rural routes. Driving will be treacherous if not impossible. Please stay home and allow hard working plow drivers to do their jobs while not putting any first responders at unnecessary risk. For those essential workers, first responders and state and local plow operators, we tip our hats to you and say thank you!
Now we watch the evolution of the storm, where will
the banding setup? How quickly does the dry slot punch into the region from the SW? How far north will sleet advance into the region?
For perspective- the current forecasted snowfall allows for a decrease/lull in precipitation from a dry slot between 1-2AM. Earlier means lower amounts. The current forecast accounts for sleet creeping into the southern counties, if its progression north is halted- higher amounts along i84, if it makes it further north than i84 lower amounts where that occurs. So redundancy is built into our final forecast to account for these possibilities.
These are the type of weather events the spark the next wave of meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. If you have a young child or teenager who is fascinated with the weather please share HVW with them. All I had was weather on the 8’s and would have loved a place to express my passion such as this. While we must respect storms of this size and appreciate the negative impact it has on life and commerce.
Also realize that without the blizzard of 1992, and lightning striking a tree when I was six, there would be no HVW.
We will be with you all day and all night, please be safe, and remember.
Keep Calm and Weather On
-Alex