Sunday Outlook : Coastal Concerns

After 2 major nor’easters inside of a week, the worries about the coming storm for Monday night and into Tuesday started very early.  We downplayed the storm initially, because the storm wasn’t looking like a major threat… with the storm appearing suppressed out to sea on most of the guidance.  We stressed that while only about a 25% chance at the time… these things need to be monitored closely, because it was roughly 5 days away at the time.  Well… in the weather forecasting world… there’s sort of an unofficial saying with regards to these kind of systems, and that is “they always trend north”.  Well, that cliché has held true once more… and we need to talk about the likelihood of some snow on Monday night and Tuesday.

Now… first off, the period of concern has shifted, from Monday… to Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s because this system is projected to slow down a bit, and that slowing is also going to give room for the storm to turn north.

You can see that the storm is now projecting to develop much closer to the coast than what we were seeing just a day or two ago.  That’s likely because the storm is moving slower, so rather than be pushed out to sea by the northern jet stream… it’s allowing it to be captured, and pulled up the coast.

If the above image is accurate, it would begin snowing somewhere between 9pm and midnight most likely… but details will change as we get more information on this.  The snow looks like a general light to moderate snowfall… with the heaviest snowfall focused east of the Hudson Valley.  Still, at dark, with temperatures around freezing… snow could accumulate on all surfaces, even if it melts on roads initially.

By sunrise on Tuesday, the storm would still be impacting the Hudson Valley, with a widespread light to moderate snowfall.  Again, the heaviest snow rates would be as you go further east… so those of us east of the Hudson River would be likely to see the ugliest Tuesday morning commute based on our current information.  This scenario would allow for snow to continue falling through the morning, likely tapering around mid day on Tuesday.

By the time all is said and done, and the snow pushes to our east Tuesday afternoon… this is the simulated snow map…

We show you this map, just to highlight how much this storm is focused to our east… and that while we could be impacted… the worst conditions are certainly projected into New England.  This is NOT set in stone however, and we’ll need to watch closely to see if the storm tracks further west.

KEEP IN MIND… that our last nor’easter on Wednesday of this past week, shifted it’s track on us just as the storm was starting.  The Snowfall Recap will come out later today, and show that with no warning… we saw a large shift in the storm track… that had major implications for our snowfall forecast.  So there is PLENTY of time for this storm to shift it’s track further.  We need to watch this very closely… and we’ll have updates later today, on whether we’re seeing further changes.

Have a great day!

5 thoughts on “Sunday Outlook : Coastal Concerns

  1. However this storm pans out March has more than made up for snow this Winter. The pressure falls projected are very impressive and if it is captured and drawn to the west 50 -100 miles it could be a much different forecast. I know I mentioned this in the last storm but March 11-13th the anniversary of the Blizzard of 1888, never rule out March for surprises.

  2. Here we go! When someone else says “bomb-genesis ” I take everything with a grain of salt, but when you
    mention it, my ears perk up and you have my attention. And your red letter-bears watching-means just that.
    Thank you for the heads up, now I know how to plan. I am home-bound whenever these things happen, on
    oxygen, and knowing I can count on the forecast means the world to me, and even more that I can understand
    it. Eyes on the storm! Thanks

  3. Well…it’s still winter… we got this!! Thanks for all the updating and commentary ! You know, if you don’t know what the weather is going to do, ask a farmer — or go to HVW!!!

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