As we close out a gorgeous Sunday across the Hudson Valley, our eyes turn ahead to the work week. At first glance, the week ahead looks quite unsettled, with several threats of showers & T-Storms. Let’s try and sort some of it out…
Monday may see some early morning breaks of sunshine, but clouds should steadily increase through the day on Monday. The humidity will be with us once again, not as intense as recent weeks, but the air will feel a bit heavier than usual. Highs on Monday should climb into the mid and upper 80s across the valley areas… with high temperatures heavily dependent upon how many low clouds and if any showers or T-Storms can push into the valley during the afternoon. Most guidance suggests the valley remains dry through daytime hours, with scattered showers and T-Storms expanding into our area between 5pm and 9pm Monday evening… and the potential persisting through Monday night.
Futurecast Radar : Monday 6am – Tuesday 6pm
You can see on the futurecast that a cluster of showers and embedded downpours push through the valley between sunset on Monday, and sunrise on Tuesday. Computer guidance is somewhat conflicted on these details, so the chances of rain are likely between 50% and 80% Monday night…. with rainfall amounts between 0.10″ and 0.50″ possible.
Projected Rainfall (GFS Model): Sunday night – Tuesday Night
Then on Wednesday, we could see a batch of scattered showers and isolated T-Storms early in the day… possibly tapering off during the mid to late afternoon hours. Some guidance is more bullish on this idea… while others are not as impressed. Then there’s a cold front that should slide south on Thursday, pushing a period of scattered showers & T-Storms back through the Hudson Valley and Catskills Thursday afternoon and evening. The combination of those 2 periods of rain could bring anywhere from a quarter inch to an inch of rainfall (0.25″ to 1.0″)
Projected Rainfall (GFS Model) – Wednesday AM through Friday AM
The passage of the cold front Thursday night should give us some nice weather to close the work week and start next weekend. Next weekend could see a good amount of sunshine, highs in the 80s, and low humidity, and overnight lows in the 50s. But before we get there… the total rainfall possible between Monday and Friday could be between a half inch, and 1.5 inches (with localized higher totals).
Projected Rainfall Monday – Saturday AM
This map shows roughly 1 inch of rainfall over the course of the coming week, as a result of 2 or 3 rounds of scattered showers & T-Storms. There will be some ‘winners & losers’, with some areas seeing closer to a half inch of rain… and some areas possibly over 1.5 or 2 inches. There could be a couple locally heavier T-Storms that drop an inch or two of rain in a few places, causing those locations to receive higher rainfall amounts than their surrounding neighbors. But in general, the work week is expected to see multiple rounds of unsettled weather. If you have plans, you’ll want to check back frequently for updates on the specific details.
Have a great start to your week!