Thursday Discussion : Mid Winter’s Chill

It continues to feel like the core of winter outside, all across the Hudson Valley. Morning low temperatures were bitter cold around the region. Poughkeepsie got down to around 12° for a morning low… but that was likely because of a SW wind off the Hudson River, keeping them warmer than the surrounding area. Newburgh dropped down to 9°, and Montgomery was one of the colder spots, coming in at a bone chilling 2° for a morning low. But the coldest report came to us from Monticello, where the mercury hit a mind numbing -4°!
 
Now, the temps are climbing across the Hudson Valley as of mid day. Most of the region is in the mid to upper 20s at this point… with many topping out around 30° for an afternoon high. Average highs this time of year are in the mid 40s… so that’s roughly 15° below normal for the 1st week of March.
 
Next Storm on the Horizon
We’re watching a weak disturbance roll through to our south on Friday. A snow shower or flurry can’t be ruled out for Friday afternoon… but the bulk of the moisture with that system will stay south of us. Then our eyes turn to Saturday night and Sunday. A strong storm will push into the midwest, and a warm front will approach our area Saturday night. That should spread a band of light snow into the Hudson Valley and Catskills before sunrise on Sunday. With March air being milder on average… it won’t take much for the wet snow to change over to rain across the region… so by mid to late morning on Sunday, we should all be seeing cold rain showers, as temps approach 40°. A slushy inch or two of wet snow is possible before the changeover… but current guidance suggests there is not much moisture associated with this system.
 
Winter’s Last Stand?
 
We’ll continue to watch this system over the next couple days, but signs of spring are starting to pop up all over the weather map. Spring has winter on the ropes… but we can’t write off Old Man Winter just yet. It looks like he might have a little more fight in him. Guidance suggesting that winter may look to make its last stand between March 17th and March 27th. In that period, we could see 1 or 2 chances for wet snow. But by that time… the March sun is very warm, and things will need to set up perfectly for snow to accumulate.
 
We’ll keep you posted on what we see. Thank you for all the support you guys have shown to HVW! A special thanks to all our supporters, for really believing in the mission of HVW, and finding value in our work. You ALL keep us motivated, and make operating HVW so much fun!

2 thoughts on “Thursday Discussion : Mid Winter’s Chill

  1. It was 2° in Mt. Tremper this morning. I love winter but I’m ready for spring!
    As always, I think you guys are awesome! I look forward to your discussions. Mother nature is full of surprises

  2. A few thoughts, if you listen to Hudson Valley Weather as I do, consider floating a donation of 10$, 20$ or 30$, because similar to National Public Radio, we get the news based on giving back.
    Second, since these forecasters have created a village, so to speak, there are many things that can unite us off season too. For instance, alternative to salt on the roads?! Who is the benifiting, not our cars, not the Hudson River, wildlife or nature in general. Can we harness the fabric woven by the Hudson Valley Weather community to make the valley even better…?

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