Thursday Discussion : Rainy Night Ahead

(NYS Futurecast loop : Thu 1pm to Fri 7am)
Sunshine mixing with clouds across the Hudson Valley with a warm southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Temps in the valley as of 1pm:
Poughkeepsie 64° ; Newburgh 68°
Montgomery 64° ; Monticello 67°
But the beautiful weather won’t last… as you can see the futurecast satellite and radar. The front edge of the rain showers likely reach the Hudson Valley between 4pm and 9pm.
Estimated Rain Shower Start time:
– 4pm : NW Catskills
– 5pm : Monticello, SE Catskills
– 6pm : Kingston, Saugerties, Catskill, Hudson
– 7pm : Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Monroe
– 8pm : Peekskill, Nanuet, Tarrytown
The rain showers don’t appear overly heavy nor long lasting. The entire band of rain showers push through between 1 and 3am. Winds will shift out of the NW and temps will tumble very quickly. Temps at sunset in the mid 50s… falling into the mid 40s by midnight… and into the low and mid 30s by sunrise. That will leave us with a blustery and cold Friday. Friday’s highs in the low to mid 40s, with NW winds gusting over 20mph, giving us wind chills in the mid 30s. Be sure to bundle up for your Friday.
Major Winter Storm Before Thanksgiving??
In a word… nope. But it’s a complex setup for sure. We’re getting a lot of questions, so we want to talk about the situation briefly. A strong cold front pushes through on Monday, with rain moving through the region. Sharply colder air rushes in behind it. A coastal storm tries to develop along the front, but very likely happens too late and too far out to sea for the Hudson Valley. However, behind the front, a strong upper level low pressure is expected to linger over the eastern US, and this could cause some moisture to swing back into the Northeast by Tuesday or Wednesday next week. This could bring some rain or wet snow showers into the Hudson Valley… but there is a lot of uncertainty with those details.
But as of this post… a winter storm before Thanksgiving is unlikely. While there is a strong signal for east coast storm development next week, it looks like everything develops too far out to sea, well east of the Hudson Valley. So for now, we’d put the chances of a coastal storm impacting our area at less than 30%. But as always, we’ll continue to watch it… and if anything changes we’ll pass it along.

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