Thursday Discussion : Showers & T-Storms on the Way

Low clouds in the Hudson Valley have kept temperatures cool, in the mid 70s out ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will touch off a widespread area of showers and thunderstorms across the Hudson Valley and the Northeast. As a result, the National Weather Service has parts of our area under Marginal and Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon.
In response, we are issuing a Stormpact map for the afternoon.
The greatest threat is for areas south of I-84, because the combination of atmospheric shear and instability are greatest. The low clouds will once again aid in stabilizing the atmosphere in the Hudson Valley, minimizing the heat energy available. But the wind shear (wind moving in different directions at different layers of the atmosphere), associated with the cold front will be considerable, and will elevate the threat for wind damage as the front passes through today.
For the afternoon, ahead of the front, a few pop up super cell T-Storms can’t be ruled out… however, the low clouds should minimize the development of these. Between 1pm and 3pm the front edge of the showers and embedded T-Storms should move into the Catskills. The majority of the Hudson Valley should see the front edge of the showers and storms arrive between 3pm and 6pm.
Futurecast Radar: 1pm to 9pm
Guidance suggests gusty winds and heavy downpours are possible with the arrival of the squall line… but the latest guidance suggests that there will not be a large number of strong to severe T-Storm cells. For that reason, our Stormpact graphic has low impact & outages. Remember, however… that while a low number of severe cells are expected, if one occurs, it could contain damaging wind gusts over 50mph, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out (5% chance) with the wind shear today.
As always, we will try to share warnings as they are issued this afternoon. Feel free to check back with us as things develop.

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