Ok… we’ll play your game, Mother Nature.
We’ve been sitting on this for a few days, afraid to say anything… because it’s May. But we’ve got enough guidance agreeing with this idea, that we’re going to talk about it as a real possibility. Snow appears likely Friday night, and it does appear that it could accumulate. Here’s the simulated radar from 2pm Friday, through 8am Saturday…
Futurecast Radar : 2pm Fri – 8am Sat
The loop runs rather quick, but once you locate the Hudson Valley in the lower right quadrant of the map… you’ll see that rain moves in near sunset on Friday… and turns over to snow across the ENTIRE Hudson Valley after dark, before exiting the region after midnight.
Really HVW?? Can this Really Happen??
In a word… yes. We had snow around April 17th in many parts of the region. But many areas near the Hudson River, and especially south of Poughkeepsie, were a degree or two too warm and saw mostly a cold rain. The difference here, is that this cold air mass invading the HV is colder than April 17th’s storm. Additionally, chilly air is already in place ahead of the arctic air and developing coastal storm. So as the storm develops, it’s got plenty of cold air to tap into, and it should cool the atmosphere into the low and mid 30s across all parts of the Hudson Valley… even at valley level, near the Hudson River eventually.
This is a rather aggressive snowfall map, but it highlights some of the items we want to focus on. First… you can see the darker blues and purples in the higher elevations of the Hudson Valley. That’s because they’ll be the coldest locations, and most capable of seeing higher accumulations (more than 3″) of snow. You can also see the wild swings in accumulations across the valley. That’s due to the wild variance in temperatures based on elevation, and wind direction in this event. Down slope winds could keep temps a bit warmer in some areas, and allow snow to fall in some areas where it did not fall in the April snow event. The average high for Friday is 71°… the AVERAGE. But we’re talking about snow Friday night. Because of the extreme nature of this event… don’t get hung up on accumulations in any one area. It’s all going to come down to the little details, that models will struggle with. The general story will likely be… rain… mixing with snow after dark, changing to all snow before midnight… and tapering off after midnight. Wet snow accumulation of a slushy coating to 2 inches are possible on grassy areas… and locally 4 or 5 inches above 1500 feet.
We’ve got our hands full again… expect updates on Thursday as we continue to wrap our hands around this situation. Have a great Thursday! Temps will be around 60°… which is still cool for this time of year.