Thursday Discussion : Soaking Rain… Ends as Snow?

Cloudy skies will be in place as the sun rises on Thursday, and the rain showers will move into the region between 9am and 12pm.  From there, a soaking rain will overspread the entire Hudson Valley for the afternoon hours.

Futurecast Radar : 8am to 4pm Thursday

The steady rain will continue through the afternoon, and into the evening hours on Thursday.  During that time, winds will shift around out of the north, and begin pulling some dramatically colder air into the Hudson Valley.  Those northerly winds will cause the temperatures to tumble between the hours of 9pm and 3am.

Futurecast Temperatures 9pm Thu – 3am Fri

The northerly winds pull down enough cold air, so that the atmosphere is capable of supporting snow after midnight in the Hudson Valley.  The big question is, how much moisture remains in the region when it’s cold enough for snow to fall.  Here are two possibilities showing the futurecast radar from 12am to 6am on Friday.

HRRR Futurecast Radar 12am – 6am Friday

This scenario would have enough moisture in the region when the cold arrives, to support several hours of snow.  The snow wouldn’t be particularly heavy, but with temps falling below freezing, it would be cold enough to see a slushy inch or two in many areas (with even 3 or 4 inches in higher elevations).  However, other data suggests there is not nearly this much moisture in the region at this point.

NAM Futurecast 12am – 6am Friday

This NAM model solution represents the same 6 hours… from midnight to 6am on Friday.  The precipitation ends as snow… but then quickly tapers off, as the cold air rushing south, also rushes the moisture out of the Hudson Valley.  If this solution is correct… then a slushy coating at most would be likely.

The big question is, which solution is correct?  Historically, the NAM solution tends to be correct.  The cold air pushing south also tends to force the moisture out to sea.  We’ll have to monitor whether that happens in this scenario.  It’s likely we’ll have a better idea in the afternoon on Thursday.  Either way, it’s not a major event… but we should caution about the potential for an icy Friday AM commute.  Temps will be below freezing for the Friday AM commute, and even if there is no snow… black ice could be an issue.  We’ll try to share updates during the afternoon on Thursday.  Have a great day!

1 thought on “Thursday Discussion : Soaking Rain… Ends as Snow?”

  1. Happy for a soaking rain. Despite the recent snow melt, the surface soil is dry in the Accord area…even a few cracks in the soil…more reminicent of a dry spell that just melting a foot plus snow pack.

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