Thursday Discussion : Tropical System… Fay?

Model guidance is coming to an agreement that our region will experience impacts from a tropical or subtropical system on Friday & Saturday. As of this morning, the center of low pressure is located roughly 60 miles offshore of Wilmington, North Carolina. As the system tracks northward near or just offshore of North Carolina’s Outer Banks, the National Hurricane Center has given it an 80% chance of development into a tropical cyclone. If development occurs, it will be named Fay. Regardless of reaching name criteria, this system will bring a widespread heavy rainfall event from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Rainfall will overspread the region from south to north during the early afternoon hours on Friday and will persist through Saturday morning.

Current visible satellite view, located offshore of North Carolina:

As seen on visible satellite, the center of low pressure is far west of any major convection. If this center reforms closer to thunderstorm development, tropical cyclone status could be reached later today/tonight.

Scenario (NAM 3km):

As observed in the latest NAM 3km model run, the center of low pressure moves inland over the Delmarva Peninsula and tracks northward through New Jersey or extreme eastern Pennsylvania. While models like this one prefer an inland track, others, such as the NAM 12km, show the center remaining slightly off the New Jersey coastline. Regardless of its track, the Hudson Valley will see a widespread soaker.

Rainfall totals:

A widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected for the Hudson Valley. This will result in a flash flood threat for the entire region, especially the Catskills. Along with heavy rainfall, gusty winds are possible throughout the Hudson Valley, especially coastal regions. Nonetheless, nor’easter-like conditions are expected on Friday & Saturday. Specific details will be fine-tuned as we go into this evening/Friday morning.

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