Thursday Discussion : Two Storms to Track

By Thursday morning, the rain and wet snow showers associated with the cold front should be over, and temperatures should be holding in the upper 30s and low 40s around the region.  So that will allow us to divert all of our attention to tracking 2 weather systems.  One has the potential to be an icy headache Friday evening… the other, has the potential to bring a snowy Sunday surprise.

Friday PM Wintry Mix

A storm system near Chicago will have a warm front extending all the way to the east coast on Friday evening.  With that front, will be moisture overrunning cold air at the surface.  That sets the stage for sleet changing to freezing rain, and then to plain rain (especially in the valley).

Futurecast Radar: 7pm Friday to 5am Saturday

It’s looking more likely the moisture holds off until 6pm to 9pm around the region, but it is likely to begin as freezing rain and sleet for everyone north of I-287… with temperatures at the onset expected to be 30° to 32°.  Temps rise a couple degrees 32° to 35° across much of the valley… allowing the precip to fall as mainly rain from I-84 south by midnight… and by 3 or 4am for the rest of the valley.  The Catskills may remain mostly freezing rain, with temperatures pinned in the low 30s.  The moisture exits the region shortly after sunrise on Saturday… and conditions improve.  The worst issue Friday night, is for anyone who must travel after dark… you could run into some icy conditions.  So we will be sharing any updates as we get closer to the event.  The best bet, is to plan to stay off the roads if at all possible Friday night.

Sneaky Sunday Snow

This event is far from certain, but we have been sniffing out the potential for a few days now.  Computer guidance is becoming more and more interested with the potential for this storm system.

Northeast US Futurecast Weather : 7am Sunday through 1pm Monday
This view of New England shows a intensifying coastal low pressure moving northeastward on Sunday.  Snow overspreads the Hudson Valley and falls moderately to heavily for several hours, before tapering off by sunrise on Monday.  The timing is a bit different depending on the data you look at.  But if the scenario above were to play out, it would be a widespread 3 to 6 inch snowfall for the Hudson Valley.  The guidance shifts around the start time and the accumulation, as well as the temperature.  So we’ll need to monitor this closely.

Once again, when we look at the temperatures across the northeast compared to average… it’s very mild.

Projected Temperatures in the Northeast, Compared to Average:

These are quite warm temperatures around the entire northeast.  When you think of snow, you think of cold air, or at least air temperatures near average.  The relative weather pattern is quite mild, and yet here we are, considering the potential for snow on Sunday / Sunday night.  We will be monitoring the potential very closely over the next 24 to 36 hours.  We’ll keep you updated.

Have a great final day of 2020!  Happy New Year!!

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