Similar to yesterday, today will feature uncomfortably high humidity with a chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms triggered by a cold front approaching from our west. More clouds than sunshine are expected today, but breaks of sunshine are likely to occur periodically throughout the day, which could cause locally high instability throughout portions of the Hudson Valley.
With temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and dew points in the mid-70s, heat indexes are expected to approach the mid-upper 90s in our southern locations while upper 80s-90° in northern locations, especially the Catskills. Along with very muggy conditions, these ingredients combined will result in a severe threat this afternoon.
Current model guidance suggests storms will begin to develop between 1-3 pm. Storms will move east southeast throughout the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. The primary threats will be strong gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to ponding of water in low lying areas. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.
Below is a simulated radar for this afternoon (noon-11pm):
Today’s Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook:
Today’s projected 2 pm heat index values: