Thursday Discussion : Window of Opportunity

Meteorologically… this Halloween is going to be a treat.  However, for the vast majority of people… it’s going to be a trick.  And whether it’s because of too much chocolate, or weather forecast related anxiety… by the time it’s all over Thursday night, we’ll all likely have a belly ache.

Halloween looks cloudy, warm and windy on the whole.  Throughout the day however, there will be scattered periods of rain showers.

Futurecast Radar: 1pm – 6pm

It appears there may be a period during the early afternoon where a batch of showers moves into the Hudson Valley… before exiting by late afternoon.  But the entire day for most people boils down to the periods from 5pm to 8pm.  So let’s talk about the “possible” window of opportunity.  We say “possible” because when dealing with high definition forecasts like this… where we’re looking at a 3 hour period of time, roughly 24 hours out… the level of difficulty of the forecast is raised.

Notice at 6pm, guidance is currently suggesting the Hudson Valley splits the gap between the steady rain showers we are likely to see during the early afternoon, and the heavy downpours associated with the arctic cold front to our west.  This is the ‘window of opportunity’ we’ve been talking about for 2 days… where trick or treating could be mainly dry… just warm and windy.  While we wouldn’t place any bets in Vegas on this… it does look like this could break just right for us.  Scattered showers will absolutely be possible, as you can see from the projected showers north of Kingston and Monticello.  But everything would be fast moving, and while the umbrella will certainly be needed in your evening inventory… many of us (especially those south of I-84) may not have to equip the umbrella.  Ultimately… we’ll see how it plays out.

But beyond the ‘Trick or Treat’ weather… this storm will be a meteorological treat.  A strong low pressure system will drag an arctic cold front through the region, and out ahead of it, temps will SURGE into the upper 60s and possibly low 70s.  Then the squall line pushes through around midnight, and the bottom falls out.

Futurecast Temperatures: 6pm Friday – 8am Saturday

Temps in the upper 60s… tumble into the upper 30s in just about 4 or 5 hours.  That’s a potential 30 degree drop, that will certainly grab everyone’s attention.  Driving the tumbling temperatures, will be powerful wind gusts.  At first out of the south, ahead of the front… but with the squall line, as the system really wraps up and intensifies… look at the gusts over 60mph projected into New England…

Futurecast Wind Gusts (mph) : 6pm Friday – 8am Saturday

We’ll have to keep our guard up for scattered power outages due to down trees and power lines.  Hopefully this squall line doesn’t see gusts intensify until it’s past our area, but damaging wind gusts will surely be a concern overnight.  Behind the front… the cold air is here to stay, with temps only climbing near 50° on Friday afternoon for a high.  The seasons are ‘a changin’.

Hope everyone has a great Halloween, no matter what your plans are… to go out and get candy with the kiddos… or to watch the wild weather unfold.  Either way… we’re glad you’re here with us!  Thank you for your continued support!

3 thoughts on “Thursday Discussion : Window of Opportunity

    • Too early in the morning, I didn’t post my first comment as a reply to you.

      Hi Bill,

      If you do a Google search for “GIF speed changer”, you can upload the graphics to that website and alter the playback speed.

  1. Hi Bill,

    If you do a Google search for “GIF speed changer”, you can upload the graphics to that website and alter the playback speed.

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