Thursday Discussion : Winter Storm Update for Saturday

Summary:
– Snow likely Starting between 11am to 2pm
– Trend is for a shorter duration, weaker storm
– Faster moving storm = Less snow
– Storm likely has less moisture = Less snow
– Snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches likely at this time
 
There’s a good reason why we urge patience and caution when looking at potential winter storms more than 5 days away. A lot can change… and often it does. That appears to be the case once again this time.
 
Now… this storm is still going to happen, but it’s looking more an more like a far cry from the storm that people were chattering about 4 days ago. This storm looks faster, further north and weaker than originally projected, with less moisture. Factor all those things together… and this looks likely to be a light to moderate storm.
 
The timing still appears good, with a burst of snow likely with the onset of the warm advection precipitation. Snow should fall for several hours, before possibly tapering off to snow showers after dark. Because the primary storm is further north, but weaker… it does not pull the warm air north as fast or as far. So the snow likely tapers off before temperatures can rise above freezing. While that sounds good for snow lovers, we cannot ignore the dramatic reduction in the amount of moisture that our guidance is suggesting. Most of the moisture with this system appears likely to fall while the storm is near the Great Lakes… leaving roughly half the amount of moisture we were expecting 2 or 3 days ago.
 
We will continue to consume and process the data that comes in over the next 24 hours. We will issue a preliminary forecast this evening, and any updates and new information will be shared at that time. But the trend has definitely been for a weaker, less intense storm for Saturday afternoon and evening.

8 thoughts on “Thursday Discussion : Winter Storm Update for Saturday

  1. Sounds like another dud. We should come to grips that it just doesn’t want to snow around here this year. These events all behave the same – complex system setup, with the lows tracking over us or to the West of us. Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a measly inch, if that. Warm up is on the way again next week, not much of a Winter at all.

Leave a Comment