Tuesday Discussion : Spring Arrives & Winter Returns

Spring officially arrives at 11:06pm on Tuesday March 19th.  So naturally, winter will return on Tuesday.

A frontal boundary will swing through the northeast, as a deep trough dives southward from Canada.  This will bring a batch of very cold air south from Canada, and into the Northeast.  This will cause gusty winds out of the NW at 20 to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon, and by late in the day, scattered flurries and wet snow showers are possible (mixed with rain in the valley areas)

In addition to the blustery conditions generating lake effect wet snow showers… the winds will cause the cold air mass to feel sharply colder.  Temps on Tuesday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 30s and low 40s in the valley areas (mid 30s in Catskills).  When you factor in the NW winds gusting over 20mph at times… the ‘real feel’ wind chills will dip into the 20s and low 30s!!

It was only a few days ago when high temperatures in the Hudson Valley were pushing 70°, so this will feel like a bit of a shock to the system.  Wednesday looks cold as well, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, before a reinforcing shot of arctic air dives into the Northeast on Thursday.  That will result in highs in the low to mid 30s Thursday afternoon… with wind chills in the 20s during the afternoon.

All of this sets the stage for a potential winter weather event for Friday night and Saturday.

Another trough dives south from Canada on Friday… and at the same time a coastal low pressure system develops in the southeast.  The details of how this system develops are still very unclear.  At this time, it looks like a period of wet snow is likely to develop Friday night into Saturday.  The main question that needs to be answered, is what happens on Saturday.  Most guidance suggests that milder air moves in on Saturday and turns the wet snow into a cold rain.  A couple inches of wet snow appear possible at this time… before a changeover to a soaking rain Saturday afternoon.  Some guidance brings a coastal low pressure up the coast along with a soaking rain for the I-95 corridor, but other models keep the low pressure offshore.  So, we’ll need to watch this closely over the next few days.

As far as Tuesday is concerned… let’s prepare for the arrival of Spring, with a return of a wintry air mass.

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