Tuesday Discussion : Strong Late Day T-Storms

A warm SW flow resulted in a warm and more humid day on Monday, with afternoon highs into the mid 70s for much of the region.  That SW flow will peak on Tuesday, and result in a hot and humid day.  Highs on Tuesday will climb into the mid 80s, with dew points well into the 60s and near 70° making it feel more like the upper 80s.  So be sure to dress appropriately on Tuesday… it’s going to feel like summer for a day.

But the real story on Tuesday will be what happens as a result of the heat and humidity.  We have an elevated risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon…

This image courtesy of the National Weather Service outlines the situation.  The entire Hudson Valley will be under a “Slight Risk”, and the northern half of the valley is under an “Enhanced Risk”… in fact, it’s likely that the “Enhanced Risk” area will be expanded to cover the entire Hudson Valley.

Summary of the Enhanced Risk Thunderstorm Threat

  • 15% to 30% risk of damaging wind gust over 50mph
  • 15% to 30% risk of hail 1″ in diameter
  • 2% to 5% risk of a tornado

(% risk based on probability of occurance within 30 miles of any location)

So we’ve got a very real thunderstorm threat to contend with on Tuesday.  Here’s what the simulated radar is expected to look like for Tuesday afternoon…

The threat peaks between 3pm and 6pm from NW to SE during the day on Tuesday.  So our viewers in the Catskills and northern Hudson Valley are likely to see the strong to severe thunderstorms between 3pm and 4pm, the mid Hudson Valley should see the threat between 4pm and 5pm, and the lower Hudson Valley likely between 5pm and 6pm.  But as always… lets make sure to track the threat as it unfolds on Tuesday.

We’ll have updates on social media as the situation plays out.  Expect Severe Thunderstorm Watches to be issued around lunch time, just so you know what to expect… and then we’ll try to share warnings as they are issued.  You can get the latest warnings at the top of this page, and use the radar to track the storms as they move in.  Otherwise, please feel free to get updates on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

A busy day ahead of us on Tuesday.  We hope you have a great day!

10 thoughts on “Tuesday Discussion : Strong Late Day T-Storms

  1. Anymore it seems that thunderstorms passing through are classified as either severe, heavy or strong. Is there a reason for the frequency of these “severe” storms or is this normal?

  2. Does anyone know of extensive damage in Carmel, NY, my daughter said she was on the phone and speaking to her friend and trees are down everywhere her friend was screaming power lines were ripped out and my daughter can’t get home trees are down everywhere. Anyone know anything can’t get through to the police.

  3. Here in Saugerties, pea-sized hail, wind, but not severe. Still raining since 3:00 when the initial storm blew through. Some thunder. It’s still raining now. I’ll check out my hosta leaves to see if they have any holes in them.

  4. lots of damage throughout Orange county with trees taking down power lines everywhere, and also many cars had trees on them as well as houses too.
    Ulster county had a tornado.

  5. Appeared to be a tornado south of I84. Large swirling winds of tree branches, knocked down a few trees and removed shingles from houses. Was over relatively quick.

  6. Carmel NY is a mess. Many, many trees down, or hung up on power lines. Off roaring to get around trees and power lines on 52. Reports of “state of emergency”. No power in most of Carmel. School already cancelled tomorrow.

  7. Up near Olive in Ulster County, wild lightning, thunder, wind gusts and a violent pelting of hail like the end of the world. Then settled down to rain, then poof! All peaceful and benign. Cool and clear evening.

  8. Hi, Would you know if a tornado may have passed on May 15th through Rifton (a farm off Carney Road about 1/2 mile off Rt 213)? Our neighbor’s large, very well built, 12 year-old hay barn was radically skewed. Shocking!

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