Tuesday Discussion : Tranquil Now, Watching Weekend

A cold start to our Tuesday is expected across the Hudson Valley.  Temps in the teens will provide a biting chill as we head to work and school.  Highs Tuesday afternoon will climb into the mid and upper 30s, pretty typical of what we expect for mid January.  Tranquil and chilly weather will be with us on into Wednesday as well… with temperatures potentially cracking 40° for a high Wednesday afternoon.  That will be out ahead of a clipper system in southern Canada.  That clipper will send a cold front through the region late Wednesday… and give us colder air for Thursday.  That sets the stage for Thursday night’s potential light snow event…

A weak system will move across the Ohio Valley and into lower New England Friday morning.  It will have some moisture, but not a lot… so some light snow appears likely Thursday night.  The light snow could end as a mix of rain and wet snow Friday morning… but could cause some headaches for the Friday AM commute.  Something to keep an eye on for our Friday AM commute.  Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches seems possible, but we’ll watch to see if it looks more impressive as we get closer.

The Weekend Weather Wars…

As we’ve discussed, our eyes are focused firmly on the potential for our 1st significant winter storm since mid November across the region.  In the upper atmosphere, a trough will dig into the southeast, as a ridge builds over the western Atlantic.  How these two features interact with each other… will determine where the storm tracks, and the position will be critical.  If the storm is stronger, and the trough is deeper, the storm likely tracks further north… and we’ll see a wintry mix across the Hudson Valley.  But if the trough is a bit flatter… the cold air will plunge deep into the Hudson Valley… giving us a mostly snow event.  The trouble… is that determining the details at this point, is a very difficult challenge.  So we’ll have to monitor the situation closely.

At this point… it’s probably a 50/50 toss up, between which scenario is more likely.  Unfortunately, time is the only solution to this mystery.  As we get closer… we should have a better idea.  What is quite unlikely… is that this storm completely misses us.  An out to sea option is unlikely, because it’s not a deep coastal storm we’re dealing with… instead, it’s a weak storm with lots of moisture, riding up along a boundary.

A long week ahead, Hudson Valley… thanks for all the support!  More updates as we get closer.

23 thoughts on “Tuesday Discussion : Tranquil Now, Watching Weekend”

  1. Let it snow….let it snow….let it snow! It’s the East Coast people! We need the snow! If you don’t want snow – move! It is not a good thing to have no snow in the Hudson Valley. Have you heard the term “global warming”? Stop wishing that snow will not happen. We need it!

  2. We definitely do NEED snow…farmland, gardens, and trees need the nitrogen that the anow captures in the atmosphere. Rain grabs it too but it washes away with the runoff. Snow allows for slow absorption. In other words….no snow, crappy crops Hidson Valley.

  3. The only good point to a lack of snow (other than not having to shovel the non-snow) is that insect pests are more likely to be killed by the cold, than if they have a blanket of insulating snow. And maybe some more sunlight gets absorbed by the ground, warming thing up a degree or two. Otherwise, I’d rather have a beautiful snow-covered landscape — isn’t that what winter is supposed to be?

  4. I am working two 12 hour shifts, Saturday and sunday, so if it snows I could be mandated to stay Saturday night and get paid while I sleep in a doctors office, so a storm is ok with me

  5. Every major snow storm costs me 50 bucks to have my driveway and road plowed just to get our 2 year old to day care. Not to mention my 2 hour comute. Are all you snow lovers on furlough or what?

  6. Okay Dan….we don’t “need” snow. My bad. I still think we need it, in spite of the all the rain we had. But we are entitled to our opinion yes?

  7. Do we “need” a foot or more, it looks like that’s what’s coming followed by frigid cold. Where are you HVW guys with updates today (Wednesday)??

  8. Looks like K Zamenick agrees with me Dan! Did you read what they wrote? Hmmmmmmmmmmm….. we NEED snow! Snow is very different then rain.

  9. (I think I better be prepared to duck, but here goes) I could use the Santa Monica mountains right now. It hits 70+ degrees in Jan-Feb some of the time. Hiking in a tee shirt, looking down (!) on the Pacific in the late afternoon as the sun plays and sparkles upon a million little waves… so that even a bagful of 20 carat diamonds are surely put to shame. (Now it’s time for me to duck)

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