Tuesday Discussion : Watching for Ida’s Rains

Remnants of Hurricane Ida Heading for the Hudson Valley
– Flood Watch in effect for Wed PM – Thur PM
– Rain beings mid day Wednesday, heaviest late Wed night
– Rainfall amounts 2 to 5 inches possible, locally higher amounts
Futurecast Radar : 8am Wednesday to 8am Thursday
While the damage out of southern Louisiana and the New Orleans area is still being assessed, our focus now turns to the remnants of Hurricane Ida. As of Monday night, Ida is now a tropical depression with max winds of 35mph. Ida is in the process of getting captured by an east coast trough which will help pull the tropical moisture northeastward, out ahead of the storm center, and possibly into the Hudson Valley.
 
Current guidance is represented by the futurecast radar image shown here. You can see scattered rain showers pushing into the Hudson Valley around mid day on Wednesday. Periods of light to moderate rain seem possible through the afternoon hours Wednesday into the evening hours. Wednesday night, as the center of circulation approaches the east coast, that’s when the heaviest rain is likely. The tropical moisture could produce flash flooding rainfall rates Wednesday night into Thursday morning… before exiting to the east Thursday morning.
The key to the forecast will be the position of the trough. Based on the current guidance… the lower half of the Hudson Valley is expected to see heavier rainfall than the northern Hudson Valley. That’s why the Flash Flood Watch excludes Greene and Columbia counties right now. If the trough is a little further north, the entire Hudson Valley could see the potential for flooding rains… conversely, if the trough is a little further south, the heaviest rains could be suppressed south of the Hudson Valley. However for now… it appears that some heavy rain is likely late Wednesday night, especially from the Mid Hudson Valley on south.

2 thoughts on “Tuesday Discussion : Watching for Ida’s Rains”

  1. Just came from Sea Isle City, New Jersey where occurring heavy rains & flash flooding can carry your car down the street. Glad to be back in the Hudson Valley. We don’t have it bad at all.

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