Tuesday Discussion : Weekend Buzz

With all the buzz surrounding this weekend’s potential winter storm, we want to provide an update on the potential. Most importantly… this storm is still 4+ days away… and so the details surrounding this storm WILL change.
 
Highlights:
– Start time trending later… Mid to late PM Saturday
– Storm begins as snow, could end as wintry mix
– Significant (but not major) winter storm possible
– Sunday looks blustery and cold, but dry
 
The basic structure of this system remains the same. Storm develops over midwest on Friday, and advances eastward on Saturday. COLD high pressure over New England funnels cold air into the Hudson Valley ahead of the storm. As the moisture presses east, snow should develop. Start time has been trending later and later… now possibly not until mid or late afternoon. Snow could fall for several hours, before milder air tries to push up the Hudson Valley.
 
The details will need to be worked through… but a changeover to sleet or rain is possible from I-84 on south Saturday night, before ending before sunrise on Sunday. Little details will make a big difference in the details, and we won’t have those answers until Thursday or Friday most likely. That said, confidence on the base setup of this storm is rather high at this point.
 
In terms of accumulations… it’s WAY too early to get caught up in that level of detail. It’s hard enough forecasting snow accumulations 24 to 36 hours in advance… let alone 4+ days. The one point we want to stress for now, is that this is NOT a major winter storm. When we use the term “major” we are talking about a storm with the potential of 12+ inches of snow. This is NOT that type of storm. It will have a fair amount of moisture, but it will be a fairly fast mover, and not particularly strong. This storm looks to have 0.50″ to 0.75″ of liquid moisture. If that is all snow, it would 8 inches at most… and we don’t know if it will be all snow. But for perspective, that’s what this storm looks like at the moment.
 
Hope everyone has a great Tuesday.

6 thoughts on “Tuesday Discussion : Weekend Buzz

  1. This storm is looking less impressive but more in tune with the way this winter has morphed into. Looking at recent runs it is becoming more like many others. We need a pattern shift and some blocking without it storms will zip through and with flows out of the SW at high levels mixing will continue to be a problem. I’m glad HVW has resisted the urge to jump on the bandwagon as the Weather Service has backed off as of the 5PM forcast.

    We need a serious pattern shift or this winter especially for the Mid Hudson Valley will be one disappointment after the other as we will be looking at the end of January or Februsry and without that needed shift we will be running out of winter. Snow lovers, this Winter started with hope but has settled for mixing, this storm will likely be the same.

  2. One person’s “one disappointment after the other” is another person’s relief…..Thank you for your good work…..

  3. I’ll gladly taking credit for a mild winter because I invested heavily in my first snow blower 10 days AFTER the monster snowfall in December.

  4. Well said, Vinny…This “storm” now is looking like 1″ of a mixed bag of junk, BY time Sat arrive, it will probably be just a cold rain… @HVW – the only “buzz” i hear around me are from the fly’s that came out from the 70 degree weekend we just had, they know Winter is a bust, too.

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