Tuesday Forecast Discussion

With one storm behind us we don’t get much breathing time between systems with this active and progressive pattern, unfortunately the same storm track we have been seeing most of the season will continue. Tomorrow another wave of energy will round the trough and brush the region with precipitation. Precipitation will be light and scattered and temps across most of the region look toon warm to support snow, although our northern most counties and some of the higher terrain of the Catskills may have some light freezing rain and drizzle. You see those blue and red lines? those are an indicator of temps at 5000′ up in the atmosphere, the 540 line is 0 deg celsius, so as you can see the atmosphere does not have much support for frozen precipitation. What it does show is that temps at the surface may briefly support a period of freezing rain across the some of the sheltered valleys and lower elevations, although this period looks short lived and extremely localized with a cold and dreary day for most of the region.

But this active pattern isn’t done with us just yet, another storm system will begin to impact the region before daybreak on Thursday. Does anyone have any guesses on what type of weather we should expect with this next storm? Before we answer that, lets take a look at the current and all too persistent pattern we are seeing this week and many times this winter. We have marked the appox position of the current jet stream which is responsible to not only the steering of storms and their affiliated pieces of of energy, but also important boundaries between cold air and warm air. We also have brought an arrow from that jet stream down to its speed in knots, you will also noticed we have marked and area of high pressure over the Atlantic and its associated clockwise rotation, the warm air advection associated with this high pressure causes ridging in the jet stream to our south and is commonly referred to as the SE Ridge. What does this overall pattern mean? No true arctic air available, cold air that is around does not have much staying power, storms are moving quickly with no downstream blocking of the flow, in addition this pattern will tend to bring storms directly over our region or even just west of it, this track puts us on the warm sector of the counterclockwise rotation of a low pressure system. The result? Fairly progressive storms, weak in nature, snow transitioning to mixed and eventually rain, with short lulls between storm systems, make sense? So what would you expect the storm approach our region Thursday to look like? Lets take a look below..

You guessed it?!?! I guess you don’t need us anymore now…. After tomorrow Thursday after midnight comes are next period of unsettled weather. As of todays guidance it would play out with a initial burst of snow just after midnight Thursday, it would quickly transition to sleet and then plain rain across the entire region and warmer air floods into the region, with no arctic air mass in place ahead of the storm because of…. you know, the stuff we spoke about earlier, this leads to warm air having the upper hand. Still some time for changes, if the cold front is a bit faster we could see a colder, snowier or icier outcome to this system as well, so stay tuned.

6 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast Discussion

  1. Thank you for the forecast.
    Have you considered a proofreader? I only skimmed a few sentences and saw some blatant typos.
    I am a professional editor/proofreader, if this is something that interests you. Chronogram, Ulster Publishing, etc.
    H. Nichols

  2. Thank you for injecting some humor into the dismal Winter, the most disappointing one I can remember. Thanks also for the explanation and charts on how it continues to be a bummer. Who would have thought the highlight of our Winter would have been on Dec 2!! It’s amazing how each and every system behaves in the same way over and over, and I’d be shocked if we get another true snow event this season. Keep up the good work on your end!!

  3. You most definitely could use a proofreader. There are way too many typos which may be a sign you are working too hard with little sleep, and are rushing thing’s a little.
    However, we all know that your intentions are good. So for that I say thank you for all you do to help keep us prepared and safe.

    Here are some examples from some recent posts.

    Temps {are} our station bottomed out to about 27°
    Use that as your gauge for what ?? can expect I’m your neck of the woods.
    most of the region look {toon} warm to support snow
    which is responsible to not only the steering of storms and their affiliated pieces of of energy
    you will also noticed

Leave a Comment