The overall pattern will continue to hold true for the Hudson Valley as we prepare for our next winter storm on Wednesday.
Futurecast Radar: 7am Wednesday – 7am Thursday
On this simulation, you can see that the precipitation is well defined off to our south. A well defined snow band in southern PA is in place as Wednesday begins. But as soon as we put the map into motion, you can see it doesn’t translate northeastward very nicely at all. The system weakens in the face of high pressure which drifts off the coast of Massachusetts. Normally, this high pressure would exit into SE Canada, giving way for the moisture and snow to advance northeastward. This time however, the high pressure will erode some of the snow as it moves northeast. The result is a projected snow map that looks like this…
Projected Snowfall Map : Wednesday Night
In Pennsylvania and southern NJ, widespread 2 to 4 inches falls before the wintry mix takes over. Locally, in the Hudson Valley… much less is projected to fall. The reason for this, is the eroding of the snow band as it moves north… which is primarily due to the cold, dry, high pressure that instead of moving away to the northeast… it holds ground and weakens the front edge of the snow. A situation like this… is exactly what snow lovers have come to expect this winter.
– Snow develops from west to east between 1pm and 4pm
– Snow changes to sleet around sunset
– Sleet changes to freezing rain by mid to late evening (midnight)
– Tapers off by Thur AM commute (icy commute possible)
Accumulation: (updated as of 3pm Tue)
– Well North of I-84 (Upper HV) : Coating to 2 inches
– Near and South of I-84 (Mid & Lower HV) : 1 to 3 inches (Locally up to 4″)
– Entire Hudson Valley : 1/4″ of sleet + 0.1″ to 0.3″ of ice accretion
So once the snow changes over to a wintry mix late in the day Wednesday, and early Wednesday night… a multiple hour period of sleet and then freezing rain is expected. So just because snow totals will be light, doesn’t mean we escape the negative impacts. Icy conditions will be possible from sunset on Wednesday, straight into the sunrise hours on Thursday. We don’t expect significant icing, with most of the precipitation being light. However, as we know… a little ice goes a long way, toward making for hazardous conditions.
We’ll have a closer look on Tuesday, at the exact amount of frozen precipitation expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. By mid morning on Thursday, it appears as if temperatures surge into the 40s and low 50s, melting everything that falls in a frozen form. More details as we get closer…