Tuesday Outlook : Shifting Focus to Wednesday Wintry Mix

The overall pattern will continue to hold true for the Hudson Valley as we prepare for our next winter storm on Wednesday.

Futurecast Radar: 7am Wednesday – 7am Thursday

On this simulation, you can see that the precipitation is well defined off to our south.  A well defined snow band in southern PA is in place as Wednesday begins.  But as soon as we put the map into motion, you can see it doesn’t translate northeastward very nicely at all.  The system weakens in the face of high pressure which drifts off the coast of Massachusetts.  Normally, this high pressure would exit into SE Canada, giving way for the moisture and snow to advance northeastward.  This time however, the high pressure will erode some of the snow as it moves northeast.  The result is a projected snow map that looks like this…

Projected Snowfall Map : Wednesday Night

In Pennsylvania and southern NJ, widespread 2 to 4 inches falls before the wintry mix takes over.  Locally, in the Hudson Valley… much less is projected to fall.  The reason for this, is the eroding of the snow band as it moves north… which is primarily due to the cold, dry, high pressure that instead of moving away to the northeast… it holds ground and weakens the front edge of the snow.  A situation like this… is exactly what snow lovers have come to expect this winter.

Timing:
– Snow develops from west to east between 1pm and 4pm
– Snow changes to sleet around sunset
– Sleet changes to freezing rain by mid to late evening (midnight)
– Tapers off by Thur AM commute (icy commute possible)

Accumulation: (updated as of 3pm Tue)
– Well North of I-84 (Upper HV) : Coating to 2 inches
– Near and South of I-84 (Mid & Lower HV) : 1 to 3 inches (Locally up to 4″)
– Entire Hudson Valley : 1/4″ of sleet + 0.1″ to 0.3″ of ice accretion

So once the snow changes over to a wintry mix late in the day Wednesday, and early Wednesday night… a multiple hour period of sleet and then freezing rain is expected.  So just because snow totals will be light, doesn’t mean we escape the negative impacts.  Icy conditions will be possible from sunset on Wednesday, straight into the sunrise hours on Thursday.  We don’t expect significant icing, with most of the precipitation being light.  However, as we know… a little ice goes a long way, toward making for hazardous conditions.

We’ll have a closer look on Tuesday, at the exact amount of frozen precipitation expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  By mid morning on Thursday, it appears as if temperatures surge into the 40s and low 50s, melting everything that falls in a frozen form.  More details as we get closer…

15 thoughts on “Tuesday Outlook : Shifting Focus to Wednesday Wintry Mix

  1. Icy conditions will be possible from sunset on Wednesday, straight into the sunrise hours on Wednesday.

    I think you meant Thursday

  2. “I think you meant Thursday” of course Stacie he meant Thursday. Everyone reading this knows he meant Thursday. Geez people are so quick to critique every little thing in social media. And to say “you think” makes it sound like you are unsure, or more so you are just being patronizing.

    • I know it seems tedious Todd, but as long as it appears in good faith (which this did)… I actually encourage it. Just because I am a perfectionist, I’d rather make the change. As long as people are cool about it, it helps us tidy up errors. The only time it’s a bummer, is when people act like we’re fools for making the error. Typos like this are cool when presented the right way. But we can appreciate that internet comments are many times in bad faith… but I think this one was in the right spirit.

  3. You guys do a nice job. No need to provide further details as we get closer, and you can save yourself some time with a forecast – just use the same ones used for the previous events. These systems all behave the same, never seen such a messy, repeating pattern like this. Keep up the good work tho.

  4. Your right, HVW – Deja Vu describes it perfectly!!. And to boot, the temps always seem to spike upward for days after each one, too. But, as you well remember, we had 4 Nor’easters last March, so we will keep the faith strong!!

  5. Careful what you wish for snow lovers. Cleaning up numerous downed trees & dealing with power outages during last year’s Nor’easters was no fun.

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