Tuesday Storm Discussion : Rainy Tuesday PM Commute

– 3pm to 7pm : rain develops from SW to NE
– could begin as a brief period of snow/sleet mix, quickly changing to rain.
– Catskills : slushy coating to 3 inches of snow possible before changeover.
 
Our weather has become much colder, and air temperatures are in the 20s Monday night. We have a storm system taking aim on the Hudson Valley, but unfortunately for snow lovers… the airmass is not quite cold enough to see snow across the majority Hudson Valley. That means primarily rain for the valley areas, with a period of wet snow possible for parts of the Catskills.
 
The radar may look active early in the afternoon (12pm to 3pm), but the airmass is dry, so the radar may be deceptive Tuesday afternoon as the precipitation evaporates before reaching the ground. But between 3pm and 7pm the atmosphere should saturate and precipitation should begin reaching the ground. Temps are likely to be in the mid to upper 30s in the valley… so there is a slight chance (25%) of a very brief period of wet snow & sleet could fall at the onset of the precipitation (north of I-84)… but temps will begin to climb and a quick change to a cold rain is expected. Periods of rain will fall into the overnight across the region… tapering off near sunrise on Wednesday.
The Catskills will likely see some wet snow flakes however… as air temperatures will be cold enough to support wet snow at the onset of the storm. A few hours of wet snow are possible in parts of the Catskills, before they also change over to a cold rain. A slushy inch or two of snow is possible in the traditionally colder parts of the region.
 
But for most of the region, this is a close call for the first winter storm of the season. A cold rain, and a reminder that the seasons are quickly changing. More updates as we go through the day on Wednesday.
-Bill