Wednesday Discussion : Cold Howling Winds

The intensifying upper level low pressure has moved to the northeast, and will spread accumulating snows into the mountains of New England.  It’s even likely to see 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Catskills as the cold air rushes back into the Hudson Valley on Wednesday.  For the majority of the Hudson Valley, the story will be the howling WNW winds… and the returning cold air.

Our flow will be out of the NW for several days, and the winds will howl Wednesday, Thursday and even into Friday.  While the air mass isn’t bitterly cold, the steady flow out of the NW, will provide a steady infusion of cold air.  That will mean falling temperatures as we move though the week.  By Friday… highs will struggle into the mid 20s, and wind chills will barely climb into the mid teens.  A frosty end to the work week, will lead us right into a bitter weekend.

Another Close Call

The buzz is ALL OVER social media, about the potential “major nor’easter” for Saturday into Sunday.  Is the storm going to hit?  What’s the timing? … here are our thoughts as of Tuesday night….

The jet stream likely splits into two branches.  The northern branch will bring the cold, the southern branch brings the storm.  However, it’s the northern branch that determines how deep the cold drives south, and how far south the developing storm system is suppressed.  Some of the guidance in the past couple days suggested the storm intensifies and moves up the coast.  However, the data we’re seeing and believing is correct, drives enough northern branch energy into the Mid Atlantic region, to stall the storm’s northward progression.

We’ll have to monitor the upper air pattern.  If the computer guidance is miscalculating the northern branch energy… it could provide more room for the storm to come up the coast, and impact the Hudson Valley more significantly.  But for now… we’d say roughly…

… a 1 in 5 chance of a major impact of over 4 inches of snow…
… a roughly 1 in 5 chance of a dusting to an inch or two, as the storm clips us, but stays south…
… roughly 3 in 5 odds that the storm is forced to our south

Check back for more information as we get closer.  Have a great Wednesday!

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