Wednesday Discussion : Evening T-Storm Potential

Another beautiful afternoon expected across the region, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, and afternoon highs around 80° in many places. An approaching cold front will spread a line of showers and thunderstorms toward the Hudson Valley from the west later today.
Timing:
– 2pm to 7pm: Isolated pop up showers and storms
– 7pm to 12am: Line of scattered showers and T-Storms.
Impact:
– 15% to 30% chance of damaging wind gusts
– an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out
– Flash Flood watch for Orange, Rockland and Sullivan counties
 
The timing of the front’s arrival is after sunset, which should help reduce the severe weather threat a bit for the Hudson Valley. There is a good amount of vertical shear in the mid levels of the atmosphere, that could help spawn a few strong to severe supercell storms both ahead of and along the cold front. The timing on the pop up storms could be anytime this afternoon or early evening, but the potential is low (less than 30% in any location). The line of T-Storms associated with the front itself arrive close to 7 or 8pm in the Catskills… and 9pm to 11pm in the majority of the Hudson Valley.
The primary concern is wind damage associated with the T-Storms along the front. Wind gusts over 50mph could result in isolated down trees and power lines. Based on the timing and guidance with the computer data, power outages should be rather isolated with this event. But be sure to be alert to the potential this evening. We’ll share any updates as the event unfolds this evening.

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