Wednesday Discussion : Is The Friday Snow Threat Real?

For the last 2 to 3 days, we’ve been silently monitoring the computer guidance.  Tropical Storm Zeta is moving north in the Gulf of Mexico, and should make landfall in Louisiana late on Wednesday.  That’s when the magic of late fall weather kicks in, and could give us a pre-Halloween surprise.

Futurecast Weather Map : Thursday Morning – Friday PM

It’s a complex setup, which we go into a bit more detail on a Fireside Chat on the HVW Facebook Page.  In short, there are 2 features, or areas of low pressure.  The first is the remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta.  That pushes northeast on Thursday, spreading rain into the region.  As that system moves out to sea Thursday evening, a second area of low pressure, an upper level low, reaches the east coast and intensifies.  That could cause a 2nd band of moisture to intensify over the northeast.  If the approaching cold air pushes in fast enough… a period of snow is very much a possibility.

Timeline:
– Thu AM through Thu 8pm : Periods of light to moderate rain
– 8pm Thu – 3am Fri : Rain showers mix with wet snow… wet snow in higher elevations
– 3am to 9am : Rain changes to wet snow from north to south
– 9am to 1pm : Wet snow tapers off

When we talk about the potential for accumulations… it’s a bit early to get to that.  We’re not fully convinced that the 2nd piece of energy, the 2nd low pressure… has enough cold air, energy and moisture to spread accumulating snow into the Hudson Valley.  Up to 3 or 4 slushy inches can’t be ruled out… especially as you go up in elevation.  A lot of interesting factors, and the details will determine exactly how this storm unfolds, and what we see.  More updates on Wednesday, as we get more information.

Have a great Wednesday!

5 thoughts on “Wednesday Discussion : Is The Friday Snow Threat Real?”

  1. Several years ago we had a real heavy dumping of snow in Ulster County on Oct 29 or 30th…I remember it brought down a tons of tress and branches. When was that?

    Reply
    • Saturday, October 28, 2010, I think. Friday October 27 we had 70 degrees – I even went out to weed for the first time all year – and got a tick on me! (That’ll teach me to do any gardening!) It was horrible to have snow on ground at Halloween…

      Reply

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