Another day of unsettled weather ahead for the region, the cold front that set off showers and storms yesterday has pushed through the northern half the the region and remain hung up to our south, this has left the northern part of the region cool and damp and the southern half a bit warmer, this will be an important detail as the day progresses.
Futurecast Radar : 6pm Wednesday
One of the key components for severe weather is instability, this instability is supplied by day time heating that occurs from sunshine, cloud cover will limit the ability for daytime heating to creating the lifting parcels of air needed for tall thunderstorms, for that reason it appears the severe threat will be “mostly” limited to the southern most parts of the region and even areas south of our forecast area.
All of the ingredients needed for heavy rain are in place, short range guidance suggests a maturing line of showers and embedded storms will move NW to SE across the region between 4pm and 8pm, this window will be the greatest threat for any severe weather that may occur, at the moment it seems the threat will increase as the line pushes further south and may not reach its peak till it begins to enter NJ/NYC area, but we will monitor closely.
If the low clouds can burn off and some clearing can occur across parts of the region that would of course increase the probability, for now lets just be prepared for a period of very heavy rain with the potential for large hail and gusty winds. If we see a change in the probability of severe weather we will share updates.