Wednesday Discussion : Late Day Storm Concern

The heat will return to the region on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, setting the stage for late afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms.

Partly to mostly sunny skies will be with us through the morning and into the early afternoon.  SW winds will usher in the heat, and we’ll have afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90°.  Humidity levels won’t be too oppressive, but there is no getting around the fact that Wednesday will be a hot one.  As we move through the afternoon hours, a few isolated thunderstorm cells may develop out ahead of the front.  Those potential storm cells could contain some locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

Futurecast Radar : 2pm to 10pm Wednesday

On this futurecast radar, you can see that the showers and thunderstorms are not organized, so not everyone will likely see one.

Timing:
– 4pm to 8pm : Isolated thunderstorm cell could develop, could be severe with potentially damaging wind gusts
– 8pm to 11pm : Scattered showers and thunderstorms, not likely to be severe.

When the main cluster of showers and thunderstorms reach our region, it will likely be between 8pm and 10pm… so the severe threat associated with the main line of showers and storms will diminish.  Our primary concern for severe weather is likely with the isolated T-Storms that could develop.  Due to the threat that one or two of the thunderstorm cells could contain strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, much of the region will be in a “Slight threat” of severe weather.  As a result, we’re going to issue our first StormPacts scale for this event.

AVERAGE confidence in this event, because we have high confidence the front will push into the region late Wednesday, but a low to average idea of if and where the isolated storm cells will develop ahead of the front.

LOW Impacts with this event, because of the limited number of thunderstorm cells expected to develop out ahead of the front.  We don’t expect a widespread severe outbreak, only a few localities are expected to see thunderstorms capable of severe weather.  If and where a severe thunderstorm hits… the impact in that location could be significant, with winds over 50mph capable of causing damage.  But in the scope of the Hudson Valley as a whole, the total impact is expected to be low.

ISOLATED power outages are possible, with only a few strong to severe thunderstorm cells expected to develop in the Hudson Valley.  A few outages are surely possible if one or two severe cells do push through the region.  Ultimately time will tell just how many storm cells develop in our neck of the woods.

We’ll do our best to cover the event as it begins to unfold Wednesday afternoon.  Stay cool Hudson Valley… it’s going to be hot, in addition to the concern for a severe storm or two.  Have a great Wednesday!

5 thoughts on “Wednesday Discussion : Late Day Storm Concern”

  1. really loved seeing the stormpact scale! hope you guys use it again in the future, as that provides all the information i want to know in an easy to understand format.

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