Mid Morning Storm Discussion
– Steady, soaking rain for the next 18 hours
– Heaviest rain and wind expected 6pm to 2am
– Street flooding and Flash Flooding is a big concern
– Rainfall totals 3 to 6 inches likely region wide (locally 8″+)
– Wind gusts 25mph to 40mph possible (6pm to 2am)
– Rainfall tapers off well after midnight
Good Morning Hudson Valley! We hope everyone is staying dry on this soaker of a Wednesday. A very soggy 1st day of school for many kids today… so despite the rain, we want to wish the best of luck to all the children, and especially the teachers… as a new year gets underway this week.
10am Radar Loop
Weather wise… we wish we had better news, but today is going to be a challenging day in terms of rainfall. A look at the 10:00am radar loop, and you can see an endless firehose of moisture streaming northeastward toward the Hudson Valley. The east coast frontal trough is interacting with Ida, and spreading copious amounts of moisture well in advance of the center of circulation… which is still in southern West Virginia at this hour.
As we go through the afternoon expect periods of soaking rain to continue. There won’t be any breaks in the rain, it should fall steadily through the entire day. The exception could be well south of I-84… where a dry slot (similar to a winter storm) could advance northward ahead of the remnants of Ida, and temporarily shut off the precipitation.
The worst of the storm is expected to be tonight, between 6pm and 2am. The projected strong vertical motion in the atmosphere will enhance the rainfall rates, to the heaviest point of the storm. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible at times under the heaviest bands. In addition, guidance continues to warn us of some pretty strong wind gusts associated with these heavy bands of rain. Wind gusts between 25 and 35mph… even a gust to 40mph can’t be ruled out, as the center of circulation of the remains of Ida pass by to our south.
It is at this time (6pm to 2am), where the greatest threat for flooding and our concern for some sporadic power outages could unfold. The combination of heavy rain and wind, on top of saturated soil, could make trees a bit more susceptible to the wind gusts.
We will continue to monitor the situation, and share updates through the day. A very stormy start to September… as Ida passes through. Have a nice day!