We are in our final stages of the Nor Easter, the storm is now gradually pulling to the east, as it does it will pull the western edge of its precipitation shield with it. But as you can see… the band of snow is still thumping away over the eastern half of the Hudson Valley.
Snowfall rates under the green band continue at over 1 inch per hour. Snowfall amounts have already achieved out forecast in all locations with a lot of reports of snow amounts already exceeding 10″. Below is a simulated radar for 10PM that will give you an idea of where the precip will be falling, as you can see it is concentrated along the river and points east.
In our forecast we highlighted the fact that where the heaviest bands set up we would see amounts reaching 20″and that also looks to come to fruition as well, the latest short range guidance projects that an additional 3-8 inches of snow will fall along and east of the river, this will push these locations towards the max project of our forecast. The only zones that will not verify the original forecast is the Catskills where we lowered amount this morning to account for the more easterly track.
Power outages are also beginning to blossom across the region, so the quicker we can get this snow out of here the better…
The snow is pouring down on the eastern half of the Hudson Valley at this hour. The center of low pressure continues to linger just east of Atlantic City, and it’s really wrapping convective bands of snow northwestward, into the Hudson Valley.
Anywhere you see green on this radar, it’s snowing moderate to heavily, and the dark green and yellow are areas where it’s near white out conditions. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2… possibly 3 inches of snow per hour are possible anywhere within this convective band of snow we’ve highlighted.
It appears that the band of snow will push NW, roughly to the eastern Catskills, before stopping it’s westward progression, and pivoting before it will eventually pull east this evening. We’ve added a red line to indicate where we believe the western edge of the convective snow band will reach. Anyone east of this red line, will likely make the adjusted snowfall forecast range of 8 to 16 inches of snow. Anyone west of that line, is going to struggle… but should make the adjusted range we put this morning of 5 to 10.
As we continue through the afternoon… all indications are that the periods of heavy snow will continue into the evening commute. Snow should begin to taper off from west to east from 6pm to 10pm. But until that time… the snow will continue to thump away, especially for the eastern half of the Hudson Valley.
8am update… NOWcasting Time:
Overnight we saw light to moderate snow impact the region with a general coating to an inch or two on the ground as everyone awoke this morning, current radar and observations support the expected lull in precipitation the is occurring in parts of the region as the precipitation is mostly scattered in nature. The snow intensity was light enough that in most locations only the grassy surfaces have seen most of the accumulations, heavier snowfall rates later today will overcome the warmer surfaces and lead to accumulations on all surfaces.
We have seen a fairly significant trend of the storm tracking further east than its westerly projected track that was showing yesterday and last night, in response we have seen the short range guidance react with a significant jump east with its snowfall projections. To put into perspective just how much of a jump, here is the NAM model from last night and then the very next run this morning. The changes in our NW zones is quite significant.
Please note that these minor adjustments to note take away from the fact that this will be a significant storm for the remainder of the region, our high end projections really have not changed much.
As you can see there has been a significant drop in projected snowfall across Sullivan,Western Ulster and Delaware Counties. A look at the HRRR model which earns its name as a (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) Model, as it runs every single hour, and you can see a similar trend starting as well..
Given that our current observations of the low pressure position all support the more easterly track, its important to put our Nowcasting into play and make some course corrections before all the other forecasts are playing catchup. Here is our revised snowfall forecast that takes into account some of the latest trends with the storm, its basically almost back to our prelim forecast. The changes are most significant across the western Catskills where forecast is dropping from 18″-24″ t0 5″-10″+ a blessing for some and a headache for the forecast. We have accounted for a lower end potential with the eight inch base accumulation and have only dropped two inches off the max total of eighteen inches, we will account for these higher potentials in our conversation about banding below average snowfall across the region will be 12″, the lower end of the forecast is really to account for any mixing in the south and lesser amounts that may fall in the western locations.
Its not uncommon to see wobbles in a storm track, wobbles of only 20-50 miles can completely change a forecast, that is why these are fluid situations and nowcasting is a part of what we do. We will continue to make adjustments if needed, we will update the time stamp on the post to help signify that there is new information. Please wrap up your morning plans and preparations as weather conditions will deteriorate quickly later this morning.
Zones 1,5- 5-10 inches with localized amounts of 12″ along the eastern portions, less west
Zones 2,3,4,6,7,8,9- 8-16 inches with the heaviest amounts occurring under the most persistent bands, locations impacted by banding may see up to 18″, Eastern facing slopes of the Catskills in zone 2 may also see up to 18″, on average most of these zones will reach 12″,Zone 9 may see the lower end if mixing occurs.
———Note that the changes are subtle outside of the Western Catskill Mountains——-
- Lighter snowfall begins to fill in and become more widespread and heavier between 8am-11am from south to north
- Snow falls heavy 1-2 inches per hour with a potential number of thunder within the heaviest bands (Banding likely east of the Catskills, Exact Position to be determined)
- A widespread 8″-16″ is expected, the higher snowfall will occur where bands of heavier snow set up and pivot over the region, under the most persistent bands we may see up to 18“+ also cannot rule out some higher amount across zone 2 where terrain enhancements may also lead to amounts near 18“
- Snowfall reductions across our most western zones to adjust for a more easterly track and shorter duration snowfall persistent upslope snowfall and linger snow showers across the Catskills will likely add to these snow totals through Friday
- Area where banding may setup has been highlight with a dashed circle, the final track of the storm will determine if this area of banding is west or east of this forecasted position
- Snowfall ends from West to East between 10pm-2am
- Wind Gusts of up to 20-40MPH are possible (Outages Possible)
- Snow is of a heavy consistency and therefore we will see additional tree damages occur (Note that even areas where an inch fell overnight there are sagging limbs)