Wednesday Nor’easter Nowcasting : 6PM UPDATE


We are in our final stages of the Nor Easter, the storm is now gradually pulling to the east, as it does it will pull the western edge of its precipitation shield with it.  But as you can see… the band of snow is still thumping away over the eastern half of the Hudson Valley.

Snowfall rates under the green band continue at over 1 inch per hour.  Snowfall amounts have already achieved out forecast in all locations with a lot of reports of snow amounts already exceeding 10″. Below is a simulated radar for 10PM that will give you an idea of where the precip will be falling, as you can see it is concentrated along the river and points east.

In our forecast we highlighted the fact that where the heaviest bands set up we would see amounts reaching 20″and that also looks to come to fruition as well, the latest short range guidance projects that an additional 3-8 inches of snow will fall along and east of the river, this will push these locations towards the max project of our forecast. The only zones that will not verify the original forecast is the Catskills where we lowered amount this morning to account for the more easterly track.

Power outages are also beginning to blossom across the region, so the quicker we can get this snow out of here the better…



The snow is pouring down on the eastern half of the Hudson Valley at this hour. The center of low pressure continues to linger just east of Atlantic City, and it’s really wrapping convective bands of snow northwestward, into the Hudson Valley.

Anywhere you see green on this radar, it’s snowing moderate to heavily, and the dark green and yellow are areas where it’s near white out conditions. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2… possibly 3 inches of snow per hour are possible anywhere within this convective band of snow we’ve highlighted.

It appears that the band of snow will push NW, roughly to the eastern Catskills, before stopping it’s westward progression, and pivoting before it will eventually pull east this evening. We’ve added a red line to indicate where we believe the western edge of the convective snow band will reach. Anyone east of this red line, will likely make the adjusted snowfall forecast range of 8 to 16 inches of snow. Anyone west of that line, is going to struggle… but should make the adjusted range we put this morning of 5 to 10.

As we continue through the afternoon… all indications are that the periods of heavy snow will continue into the evening commute. Snow should begin to taper off from west to east from 6pm to 10pm. But until that time… the snow will continue to thump away, especially for the eastern half of the Hudson Valley.

8am update… NOWcasting Time:

Overnight we saw light to moderate snow impact the region with a general coating to an inch or two on the ground as everyone awoke this morning, current radar and observations support the expected lull in precipitation the is occurring in parts of the region as the precipitation is mostly scattered in nature. The snow intensity was light enough that in most locations only the grassy surfaces have seen most of the accumulations, heavier snowfall rates later today will overcome the warmer surfaces and lead to accumulations on all surfaces.

We have seen a fairly significant trend of the storm tracking further east than its westerly projected track that was showing yesterday and last night, in response we have seen the short range guidance react with a significant jump east with its snowfall projections. To put into perspective just how much of a jump, here is the NAM model from last night and then the very next run this morning. The changes in our NW zones is quite significant.

Please note that these minor adjustments to note take away from the fact that this will be a significant storm for the remainder of the region, our high end projections really have not changed much.

As you can see there has been a significant drop in projected snowfall across Sullivan,Western Ulster and Delaware Counties. A look at the HRRR model which earns its name as a (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) Model, as it runs every single hour, and you can see a similar trend starting as well..

Given that our current observations of the low pressure position all support the more easterly track, its important to put our Nowcasting into play and make some course corrections before all the other forecasts are playing catchup. Here is our revised snowfall forecast that takes into account some of the latest trends with the storm, its basically almost back to our prelim forecast. The changes are most significant across the western Catskills where forecast is dropping from 18″-24″ t0 5″-10″+ a blessing for some and a headache for the forecast. We have accounted for a lower end potential with the eight inch base accumulation and have only dropped two inches off the max total of eighteen inches, we will account for these higher potentials in our conversation about banding below average snowfall across the region will be 12″, the lower end of the forecast is really to account for any mixing in the south and lesser amounts that may fall in the western locations.

Its not uncommon to see wobbles in a storm track, wobbles of only 20-50 miles can completely change a forecast, that is why these are fluid situations and nowcasting is a part of what we do. We will continue to make adjustments if needed, we will update the time stamp on the post to help signify that there is new information. Please wrap up your morning plans and preparations as weather conditions will deteriorate quickly later this morning.


Zones 1,5-  5-10 inches with localized amounts of 12″ along the eastern portions, less west 

Zones 2,3,4,6,7,8,9- 8-16 inches with the heaviest amounts occurring under the most persistent bands, locations impacted by banding may see up to 18″, Eastern facing slopes of the Catskills in zone 2 may also see up to 18″, on average most of these zones will reach  12″,Zone 9 may see the lower end if mixing occurs. 

———Note that the changes are subtle outside of the Western Catskill Mountains——-


  • Lighter snowfall begins to fill in and become more widespread and heavier between 8am-11am from south to north
  • Snow falls heavy 1-2 inches per hour with a potential number of thunder within the heaviest bands (Banding likely east of the Catskills, Exact Position to be determined)
  • A widespread 8″-16″ is expected, the higher snowfall will occur where bands of heavier snow set up and pivot over the region, under the most persistent bands we may see up to 18“+ also cannot rule out some higher amount across zone 2 where terrain enhancements may also lead to amounts near 18
  • Snowfall reductions across our most western zones to adjust for a more easterly track and shorter duration snowfall persistent upslope snowfall and linger snow showers across the Catskills will likely add to these snow totals through Friday
  • Area where banding may setup has been highlight with a dashed circle, the final track of the storm will determine if this area of banding is west or east of this forecasted position
  • Snowfall ends from West to East between 10pm-2am
  • Wind Gusts of up to 20-40MPH are possible (Outages Possible)
  • Snow is of a heavy consistency and therefore we will see additional tree damages occur (Note that even areas where an inch fell overnight there are sagging limbs)



42 thoughts on “Wednesday Nor’easter Nowcasting : 6PM UPDATE

  1. Thank you for your update. As stated and predicted, work to about an inch on the ground. A lull for about 3 hours from about 4 am to 7;30 am occurred. It began to snow lightly around 7:30. Here in Cornwall we were fortunate last week and worry that based on your predictions and it’s accuracy we are in for it this time. This region is so varied as to topography the New York City weather guys rarely get it right. Thanks for all you do to keep the Hudson Valley warned and informed.

  2. Thank you for the real time updates. Although it might have seemed like a 48 hr night to you, it’s still Wednesday, not Thursday yet. 🙂

  3. It was Very helpful to see your use of the dark purple lines to separate snowfall totals from the bright pink lines. I couldn’t figure out the meaning of the yellow lines especially around zones 5 and 6. Thanks for all the effort you put into such exact details for the forecast I was completely amazed to see the black lines you drew around our little area of the valley to show us getting plain rain during the last huge storm!

  4. I’m in where the banding potential is. Maybe we will have a few inches! ?. Thank you for all you do for everyone!

  5. Your my one and only weather source. Always without the hype and pack full with info.. My husband teases me on being into the weather as much as I am. But, my work requires paying attention and your the guy for the details. Thanks for all that you do!!

  6. I know you’ve been up all night and working hard on this, but I cant make heads or tails out of this sentence.
    [We have accounted for a lower end potential with the eight inch base accumulation and have only dropped two inches off the max total of eighteen inches, we will account for these higher potentials in our conversation about banding below average snowfall across the region will be 12?, the lower end of the forecast is really to account for any mixing in the south and lesser amounts that may fall in the western locations.]
    I’m in the “band” . More snow, or less?

      • Banding means, heavy band’s of snow stuck in a persistent locale. The bands are heavier and and they dump more while passing over..

  7. I must say you guys by far are the best forecasters around. I know longer rely on any other forecasting other than HV Weather. Thank you for being as accurate as you can be and I know its not easy!

  8. Hi Guys, in the latest 12 runs of the has this storm slowed a little as they have snow to 7 or 8 AM Thursday?. In Hopewell it hasn’t picked up appreciably yet. I have a question, my pet peeve is the National Weather Service out of Albany always placing us an afterthought in the lower Hudson Valley sometimes I think its because it’s harder to forcast than Albany North and West.

    I have a question, we have a Winter Storm Warning for the ranges you and they project also at this time. They also have a Heavy Snow Warning that can be used but rarely if areas can see 12 to 18 inches or 20 isolated when do they ever use the Heavy Snow Warning, just before the end of times storms?. Great Job hope that eastward shift stops.

  9. First of all, thanks for all that you do! I love your honesty and your up to date information!

    One question ~ for me, it’s not clear what the dashed oval lines are?
    Does it mean it is still in flux?
    More snow?
    Less snow?
    Please clarify this.

  10. I’m between Pine Bush and Wallkill and even though we are getting moderate snow fall, the snow still is not sticking to paved or gravel surfaces.

  11. Here by Wurtsboro airport and very little is happening. Very light snow – maybe an inch on the grass. People are still flying up and down 209 which is only wet – showing no accumulation.

  12. There’s light snow here in Woodstock, near town. At about 450 to 500 feet in elevation, steady light snow increasing. The temp is about 33 Deg.F. There is little or no wind.
    The arrival of heavier snow seems delayed here. However, in the last 10minutes the snow has noticeably picked up.
    I was wondering if cooling lift is a possibility in this snow event.
    Thank you for your capable updates and discussion.

  13. I’m in the Poughkeepsie/Lagrange area and we have very little snow, no accumulation and it let up quite a bit since this am. Is it still forecasted to be 10+ inches in this area?

  14. Snow now heavier and steady. It is large wet flakes which is sticking to cars, trees, and objects which it hadn’t much before.

  15. Update (12:30pm): 1-2″ on grass now at West Point. Snow mixing with small pellets over the last hour or two, steadily increasing in size to snowflakes. No accumulation on roads/sidewalks as of 12:28pm. Unless this picks up dramatically, I don’t see how we’ll end up above 6-8″, let alone 12″.

  16. I know this will sound like a complaint, but unfortunately this “storm” has cause our school district to use it’s final snow day on a day whereas as of 1pm. all asphalt pavement is just wet. Some schools even closed last evening based on the reports form the media ( mainly downstate TV stations). With all the wizadry you have, why weren’t the above freezing temperatures a consideration? Snow will not stick to pavement that is not cold enough to receive it

  17. Big flakes coming down in Pearl River. Roads are covered now. Looks like we’re in the banding zone so we’ll see what happens

  18. It is snowing heavily in Poughkeepsie near the area of Christ Church. Has been for an hour at least . Sticking
    to untreated pavement more. These forecasts make way more sense than any others! I will be sticking with
    you from now on. It is nice to know how and why of what’s happening. It is still a lot of snow. Some driver’s
    are going way faster than visibility seems to dictate!

  19. We now have close to white out conditions at that same Academy and Montgomery St. intersection in
    Pougkeepsie roadway is now covered and all pavement is disappearing. People have finally put on their
    lights and slowed down. It is here and looks like it will stay awhile.

  20. Update (2:41pm) – Serious snowfall at West Point, visibility down to 1/4 mile or less. Huge flakes. Roads and sidewalks have 2-3″, grass is 4″. Winds picking up out of the N/NE. Absolutely beautiful out. My comment earlier about doubting the 12″ prediction was quite premature! Love these snowstorms.

  21. At ~2:30 in Albany the snow became heavier and steady. It is just now coating the car windshields and the parking lot blacktop. Huge flakes, no wind at all. Need 3 – 4 in by 5pm to go XC skiing!

  22. Snowing heavier then earlier. We have approximately 5 inches of heavy wet snow. Light winds . Roads completely covered. No cars on roads.

  23. What we are seeing here at the Clinton/Milan/Rhinebeck border at 3pm has got to be the much-dreaded “banding”. This is some of the heaviest snowfall I’ve ever seen. We got just about 3 inches in the last hour. Even without any blowing, visibility is about 100 meters.

  24. We have about 9.5″ down here in Pleasantville most of that came in 3 periods. 12-1 , 3-4 and 5 to now . In between it’s been lighter , but when it snows it’s the heaviest I’ve ever seen.

  25. 19″ total in Washingtonville. Measured multiple spots around the yard and had 19″ average. Snow was falling around 3 inches/hr around 5 PM. The bulk of it fell from 1PM – 8 PM.

  26. At 7 PM there was an average of 4-inches in New Baltimore, Greene County (el.~20 ft. MHW). Water content 0.38 in. Measurements were taken from paved surfaces, grasses, to elevated cold platforms and ranged from 2 in. to 4.5 in.. By 10:30 PM there was little additional accumulation. Heavy wet snow accumulated on tree branches and overhead wires. We can expect power outages.

  27. This morning: 7 inches in New Baltimore (0.57 in. melted). Trees and power lines coated with about 4 in. heavy wet stuff.

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