The rain is on the doorstep of the Hudson Valley, as a large swath of steady, soaking rain pushes into the Hudson Valley. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will fall through the overnight, and into the Thursday morning commute.
The first graphic shows the Futurecast Radar at 6am. It suggests a soaking, heavy rain for the AM commute, so please use proper caution on rain slicked roads. The rain will taper to showers by mid to late morning… possibly even tapering off for brief periods. As the upper level low pushes into our area late in the day… it will result in strong atmospheric lift, and increasing precipitation rates before sunset. The result being, some valley areas may see the rain mix with or change to a heavy, wet snow after dark.
Rather than issue a “Snowfall Forecast Map” at this time, we’re going to share this computer model image that reflects our current thinking. Elevation is so critical to what each location sees. The higher in elevation, the more snow you can expect.
– The Catskills… will change over to a heavy, wet snow early in the day, and will see a widespread 4 to 8 inches, with peaks over 1500 feet seeing locally up to 12″.
– Hudson Valley… for the valley areas…the track and intensity of the Upper Level Low (ULL) will be the key to exactly what happens after dark Thursday night. Our map shows a slushy coating to 2″ in the valley, with hill towns possibly up to 3″ of potential accumulation.
However… the smallest details of the ULL storm track, exactly how much cold air is available, and elevation… could make a DRAMATIC difference in the result. We’ve highlighted an “area of greatest uncertainty”, because some guidance is much colder with a period of heavy snow Thursday night, resulting in several inches of wet snow in the areas being highlighted. People need to be prepared for the potential of a surprise heavy snowfall. It’s likely we won’t see it until it’s happening, because of the dynamics with this storm. So if our forecast in these areas turns out to be too low, you understand why.
We will have periodic updates through the day Thursday. Check back for updates.