The drought conditions have intensified across the Hudson Valley and northeast over the last several weeks.
You can see that the entire Hudson Valley and Catskills are now under the ‘Moderate Drought’ conditions in NY. This should come as little surprise considering we’ve had next to no rainfall the past 7 days, and the fact that over the last 60 days we’re running between 6 to 8 inches below average in terms of rainfall (60 day average rainfall nearly 9 inches).
This is leading to regular ‘Red Flag Warnings’ around the region, because of high fire danger due to drought and breezy conditions. So the big question on everyone’s mind is : “When will we see a change?”
The average Jet stream pattern over the next 5 days signals a continued ridge over the eastern US. This pattern favors warmer than average temperatures for early November, and sadly… continued dry conditions. But this pattern appears likely to weaken over the next 5 to 7 days, and we should see a couple chances at rainfall in the coming week.
The potential exists for nearly an inch of rain over the next 7 days, as the graphic above shows. The first opportunity for rain comes Sunday into Monday with a weakening storm system pushing into the Great Lakes. Some periods of light rain showers could develop Sunday and persist into Monday. Roughly a quarter inch to a third of an inch of rainfall is possible between Sunday and early Monday.
Then another area of high pressure should settle in for the first half of the week, before the ridge breaks down late week, and a storm system could approach the Hudson Valley by Thursday or Friday next week. That storm threat appears more significant, and could possibly bring an inch of rainfall on it’s own… something we’ll eagerly be watching in the next week.
So our drought conditions will likely continue for the next week, but perhaps some minor rainfall could provide limited relief late this weekend, and some more significant relief near next weekend.