Synopsis: Storm remains off shore… a close call, but not this time.
– 5% Chance of ‘moderate to major’ impacts (3″ or more)
– 95% Chance of little to no impact (less than 3″)
Detailed Discussion: NERD ALERT!
Thursday was “moving day” on the computer guidance. We saw consolidation in the data to a track that is east of the “Benchmark” track (70°W / 40°N)… which is represented by the black ‘L’ and curved track line. In order for the Hudson Valley to see substantial impacts, we need the center of low pressure to track along or just inside (west of) the Benchmark track. When storms track southeast of the benchmark… it’s either a dusting to an inch or two… or nothing at all.
Looking at the latest European model ensemble low pressure positions… we can clearly see that all 50 of the low pressure positions are east of the benchmark track. Out of the 50 ensemble scenarios, not one has a significant impact on our area. That means its just about time to call this storm threat as a ‘miss’. We’ll wait until the end of the day on Friday to formally “call it”… but for all intents and purposes this storm is a ‘miss’ for the Hudson Valley.
At the end of the day, the deep trough over the eastern US is too far south, and fails to tilt the trough axis negative. So there is nothing to keep this coastal storm tucked in close to the coastline. As a result… the nor’easter develops off the Carolina coast… and then just swings wide, out into the Atlantic Ocean. This will keep all significant impacts confined to the Carolinas… and Virginia Beach area, then possibly the New England coastline.
We’ll keep our eyes on things Friday just to be on the safe side… but everyone can take a deep breath, as this storm should spare the Hudson Valley. Our next storm threat could be by the middle of next week… so keep your eyes and ears open. Stay warm!
-Bill