Thursday Discussion: Weekend Storm Update

Good Morning and Happy Thursday,

We have made some tweaks to our post from yesterday based on where we stand with the latest data, today is the day we feel we should begin to be able to iron out the smaller details of the upcoming storm. This will be a prolonged, multi hazard storm with very high impacts across the entire region.

Unfortunately from a forecast standpoint and what seems like is always the case, we will be the battleground between warm and cold air. This means multiple types of precipitation, multiple phases of transition to these precipitation types, and a zone that will likely stay all snow and receive quite impressive amounts. Below we have done our best to breakdown what to expect, we have separated these items into categories of confidence, they are also in some what of a chronological order of timing the impacts. The placement of the winter storm watches across only the northern counties highlights where they are currently thinking the mixing line will be oriented.

We are in Storm Mode, so updates will come as frequently as the information changes and as quickly as we can pass the updates along via here, Facebook and Twitter… Stay Tuned

What We Know:

  • – Winter Storm Watches are in Effect for Sullivan,Ulster,Dutchess,Columbia,Greene and Delaware Counties
  • – Winter weather will impact the region Fri-Sun, courtesy of 2 Storms

First Storm : Thursday Night into Friday Morning

  • – A weak disturbance that brings 1-3 inches of snow for the Friday AM commute.
  • – Snow begins tonight around midnight and falls lightly through the overnight and tapers off from west to east between 6-8AM.
  • – Temps should bounce back a bit Fri and allow a rapid improvement to road ways

Weekend Storm : Saturday Night into Sunday 

  • – A second more powerful and more moisture laden system will impact the region Sat PM into Sunday.
  • – This larger storm looks to impact the region by as early as early afternoon and as late as the early evening.
  • – Snow will fall heavy at times Saturday evening into the overnight, snowfall rates of 1-3″ per hour are likely.
  • – Thunder snow cannot be ruled out as deep convection pushes into the colder air.
  • – A battle ground between all snow, snow and sleet, and freezing rain will occur through our forecast region.
  • – Where precipitation remains all snow 1′-2′ is likely with localized heavier amounts possible
  • – Where sleet mixes into the snow, 10″-16″ of snow is possible
  • – Where precipitation changes over to multiple house of heavy sleet, 5″-10″ inches is possible.
  • – Where precipitation changes over to freezing rain, 3″-6″ inches is possible with ice accretion potentially exceeding .50″
  • – Where precipitation changes over to plain rain, 3“-6” is possible before the change over.
  • – Snow tapers of Sunday afternoon/evening
  • – An impressive flash freeze will occur Sunday afternoon and evening.
  • – Impressively cold air will crash in behind the storm on Sunday.
  • – Gusty winds will increase in the wake of the storm.
  • – A combination of the previous two bullet points will lead to dangerous wind chills that may exceed -20°.
  • – Ice accretion, gusty winds and heavy snow accumulations may result in power outages.
  • – Travel late Saturday through Sunday and even extending into Monday AM may be treacherous or impossible due to do the combination of heavy snowfall rates, ice, flash freeze and blowing and drifting snow or any combination of the mentioned factors.
  • – Sunday night and Monday storm cleanup will be difficult due to low temps, gusty winds and flash freeze conditions, factor this into your snow removal plans.

What Are Our Concerns-

  • – A prolonged period of heavy freezing rain with high amounts of ice accrual that may damage trees and impact power is possible across our region, this area looks to potentially be along and south of i84.
  • – An initial period of heavy snow, followed by freezing rain and sleet and even some plain rain across southern most zones, followed by a translation back to snow and temps rapidly dropping may result in extremely hazardous travel and flash freeze.
  • – Precipitation rates during the storm may help to offset some of the warming in the atmosphere and lead to the mostly snow zone being slightly further south than modeled.
  • – Intense precipitation rates and stationary banding may lead to a band of overachieving snowfall accumulations.
  • – We will likely see small corrections north or south in the track of the storm for the next 24 hours of modeling, this has large implications as any minor adjustment will cause corrections to where mix precipitation line sets up.

What Don’t We Know-

The eventual position of the frontal boundary that this energy will ride along and whether or not a more phased and amplified low pressure will lead to a more inland track, or will it ride along a more southern and eastern boundary. The impacts of this are very large, the difference of less than 100 miles will mean everything, we should be able to iron this out over the next 24 hours.

Other News:

We have begun the process of setting up “Fan Subscriptions” on Facebook. We were invited to be a beta tester for Facebook and we are excited to be able to share it with all of you! Our usual content will not change, we will still offer our usual to all 130k+ of our fans. But for .99 cents a month (less than a coffee for your fav weather dudes) our supporters get a special badge next to their name, comments to the top, access to special FB live videos, access to special posts and discounts on gear!! We depend heavily on our advertisers and app subscriptions to fund our efforts, this program can really help us bring HVW to the next level and improve what we are doing while lessening the burden of the expenses involved. More to come on this over the next week!!

 

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