After what was a beautiful Saturday across the region, changes are inbound. Low pressure will move along a frontal boundary currently draped across the region bringing with it, unsettled weather with widespread rain and showers. The heaviest precip will be concentrated along the boundary itself, which may push north a bit before eventually crashing SE through the region and ushering in much colder air. There will be very little doubt where this boundary is tomorrow when we take a look at the temps across the region. Here’s a look at what surface temps look like tomorrow afternoon.
If your north of the boundary, not only will it be wet, but it will feel like quite the raw autumn day with temps in the 40’s with rain. South of the boundary not only will rain be a bit more elusive, but you’d have no idea that some of the coldest air of the season is lurking nearby. As mentioned, the rain will be heaviest and most persistent along the boundary, here’s a look at total rainfall expected between 4Am Sunday and 3pm Monday.
As you can see, areas like Westchester and Rockland will not only be mild, but also significantly drier with heavier rainfall totals as you head north towards the boundary. Rainfall looks to move into the region from west to east between 3-5AM Sunday and persist into Monday afternoon.
The other big story will be the colder air slowly starting to creep into the region as this boundary begins to push SE into the region. A look at the simulated radar shows something we haven’t seen in quite awhile.
Yes… that’s what you think it is.. colder air crashing in behind the front on Monday may turn rain into wet snow and wintry mix across the highest elevations of the Catskills Monday morning. Don’t worry, it’s more for effect and a reminder of the seasonal changes ahead, the period of snow will be brief and accumulations outside of a trace/coating across the highest peaks and ridges is unlikely. For fun here’s a look at ares that may see some flakes.
The bigger story will be the well below normal airmass that will crash into the region next week as this boundary unlocks the coldest air of the season into the region. In fact temps by Thursday morning may be some 15-20° below normal with the threat of a widespread freeze across the region. Here’s a look at how the GFS sees temps by Thursday AM.
In short, we got some changes ahead, it should be mentioned that the exact position of the boundary tomorrow will determine where the heaviest rain falls, there is some variance between the models of how far north that front can push, so some areas across the southern parts of our region may fair even drier if that were to occur. We will keep an eye on things as they develop, otherwise get ready for some incoming weather, followed by our first true blast of colder air.
