It’s not here! Temps anywhere between 10-20° below normal will continue this week, signs of near normal temps next week are brief and quickly replaced with reenforcing shots of below normal air into the region. Data continues to highlight the potential for below normal temps to outweigh average temps through the next 10-14 days.
To put a rubber stamp on this cold start to spring, we have wet snow falling this evening across parts of the region, while this area of precipitation isn’t substantial or of long duration it could leave a slushy inch or two across the higher terrain of the Catskills, with even higher amounts across the peaks and ridges above 2000’. We are monitoring the potential for a second round of snowfall on Saturday morning as a storm system off the coast begins to deepen, in doing so it will help draw down colder air and potentially a brief period of moderate to even heavy snowfall.
Here is a look at both the NAM and HRRR for Saturday AM.
They both have a very similar look, one that shows a dynamic cooling setup, where what may start as rain is able to transition to snow as heavier precipitation helps to draw down colder air at the upper levels. The result being a quick switch over to wet snow across the region, not limited to the higher elevations, but in fact potentially bringing snow to the valley floor. While we have some details to iron out over the next 24 hours and late season snowfall can be very fickle, the potential for a slushy inch or two is possible across parts of the region. We will continue to monitor the data over the next 12-18 hours and hone in on some more of the details, but the probability of Saturday accumulating snowfall is increasing. Happy Spring!