Winter Storm Forecast : Wednesday 2/20

The pattern this winter has not budged, and this storm will be no different.  We’ll go through the details, but by now… you probably have a good idea of how this storm will play out.

Timing:
– 12pm to 3pm – Snow starts from SW to NE
– 5pm to 8pm – Snow changes to sleet from SW to NE
– 6pm to 10pm – Sleet mixes with / changes to freezing rain
– 11pm to 3am – Wintry mix tapers off

Impacts:
– Snow covered & icy roads likely for the evening commute
– Multiple hour wintry mix period likely
– Icy conditions on roads through Wednesday night
– Icy travel possible into Thursday AM commute

Snow Accumulation:
– Catskills & Upper Hudson Valley (Zone 1,2,N3,N4): Coating to 2 inches
– Mid & Lower Hudson Valley (Zone S3,S4,5,6,7,8,9):  1 to 3 inches
– Ice Accumulation : Entire HV could see one to two tenths of an inch of ice on top

Discussion:

No real changes from our Monday night discussion.  Plenty of strong cold air in place across the Hudson Valley, as we see a storm system primed to attack the cold air.  As the storm pushes northeast, the warm air will overrun the cold air and provide us an overrunning snow event.  The start timing on this could be as early as 11:30 pm in places like Port Jervis, but in general, the flakes begin to fly between 12pm to 3pm from SW to NE.

The snow doesn’t appear likely to fall heavily in the early afternoon.  In some storms, it goes from cloudy to heavy snow in a short amount of time.  This storm seems likely to start as light snow for several hours, in part because of the weakening of this system as it arrives.  So by the time the PM commute arrives… a general 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected…

The highest snow amounts (amounts closest to 3″) will be the closer you get to the NY/NJ border.  That’s where the snow rates will be highest, and where the snow will fall for the greatest period of time.  The lower snowfall amounts (Coating to an inch or so) will be further north, in Columbia and Greene counties.  There, the snow looks quite light, and starts later.  But as you can see on this simulation… once the sleet (purple) moves in… we are expecting an extended period of sleet and freezing rain (pink)…

Temperatures Wednesday night are expected to stay at or just below freezing, meaning icy conditions are possible as the sun rises on Thursday.  Indications are that ice amounts will be under 0.25″, so power outages and down tree branches are not a widespread concern.  However, these icy conditions could linger to start our Thursday AM commute, something we’ll have to monitor as we go through the event.

This is by no means a significant winter storm.  But it’s enough that we have to deal with it, because the 6 to 8 hours of sleet and light freezing rain that are expected could cause travel troubles Wednesday night… and we want everyone to be properly prepared.  Just be prepared to allow for extra time, due to the likelihood of icy travel conditions

9 thoughts on “Winter Storm Forecast : Wednesday 2/20

  1. You are so on point almost every prediction! God Bless you and keep you! Thanks for your dedication for our community’s safety and welfare! As always keep up the good work and thank you for your hard work! Bev Friedman (Connelly Ny) Ulster County

  2. So appreciate this detailed forecast for our area, and accuracy that makes it so relevant for safe travel decisions. Thank you for your diligence in reporting in such a timely manner.

  3. Who would have thought that our biggest snow event of the season occurred in mid-November! 13″ fell near Marlboro then. Keep up the good work, HVW.

  4. I can’t say enough good things about you folks! As a 9-5 commuter, I depend on your winter forecasts. Thank you for your hard work!

  5. You guys are spot on. Again.

    As a child I “discovered” that weather forecasting is a mix of science, history, and even a little art. I looked at the forecast on the news as little more than their best guess. Your forecasts seem to have a lot more science and history, and you go out of your way to hedge against the things you aren’t (or can’t) be sure about. Over the past two years I’ve come to look at your product as a dependable source of information. Thank you so much for all that you do.

Leave a Comment