Winter Storm Update : 5pm Sunday Evening

We’re nearing the back end of “Act 1” of our complex winter storm, as the sun sets around the region.  Looking at the current radar, you an see another band of yellows and oranges (indicating heavy precipitation) moving into the lower Hudson Valley.  The HV is on the lower right area of the image, if you look close POU = Poughkeepsie…

Radar Loop : 3pm to 5pm Sunday

This radar doesn’t tell the difference between sleet and snow… but it clearly allows you to see the heaviest bands of precipitation.  This will likely fall as a mix of sleet and snow across the region, so travel will be very difficult for the next 2 to 3 hours.

But this conversation really looks beyond this evening, and focuses on Monday.  An extremely challenging forecast lies ahead, and the difference in 50 miles of positioning will be the difference between 3″ and 12″ of snow.  The Upper Level Low pressure energy will advance to the coast.  And this will result in strong upward motion on the NW side of the Upper level energy.  It is likely to create a band of heavy snow… with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.  Here’s one of the futurecast radar solutions from midnight tonight, through Tuesday morning…

SOLUTION #1 Futurecast Radar: 12am Monday – 7am Tuesday

The problem is… this band of snow will be very narrow, and so determining who gets 12″ and who gets 3″… is a substantial challenge.  But under this scenario… the low pressure tucks in off the coast, and bands of heavy snow blossom, and rotate NW into the Hudson Valley on Monday morning.  If this occurs, then the Hudson Valley will see a substantial snowfall, likely approaching 12″ in many places… in close alignment with our forecast.

However… there is other guidance, that suggests that this band is not focused over the Hudson Valley…

SOLUTION #2 Futurecast Radar : 12am Monday – 7am Tuesday

Under this scenario, it still snows in the Hudson Valley… but the additional accumulation is 2 to 6 inches, instead of 6 to 12 inches on Monday.  The focal point of the heaviest snows on the second solution, are from Binghamton down to Philadelphia.  That’s where this solution suggests 6 to 12 inches of snow will fall.  To illustrate the difference in the 2 solutions… here is what could happen if the first solution is correct…

Solution 1 Snowfall Map (HVW idea)

A widespread foot or more in the Catskills and northern Hudson Valley, 6 to 12 inches (possibly a bit more) in the Mid Hudson Valley), and even near 6″ in the lower Hudson Valley.  But if things don’t go as expected, here’s the snowfall potential…

Solution #2 Snowfall Map

This would have everyone at the low end of the forecast range.  Likely around 4 to 5 inches in the Mid Hudson Valley… approaching 10″ in the Catskills… with the focus of the heaviest snows north and west of our area.  These are the challenges of the evening… as we try to determine how Monday will play out.  More updates as the evening progresses…

28 thoughts on “Winter Storm Update : 5pm Sunday Evening

  1. Thank you for your time and efforts you put into forecasting this storm for all of us. I have relied on your forecasts for the last several years, and you are usually more ‘on it’ than the meteorologists.

  2. I don’t know if you know, but with this much uncertainty, an idea of when the situation would be resolved, even a 2 hour window, would be very helpful for those of us making plans to clean up and move around. For example, if the difference between 1 and 2 will be resolved around midnight, that is a different plan than if the uncertainty will continue until noon.

  3. Hold on guys!

    The first map was ran at noon today and includes about .50 of QPF that fell as sleet and freezing rain. Not the 8 or so inches of snow included in the totals on the first map.
    Your post is misleading.

  4. Who comes voluntarily to a website for information and then points out the perceived “flaws”. Let the weathermen do what they are trained for. Thanks Bill and Alex for keeping us up to date on your latest forecast. We are appreciative here in the Hudson Valley.

  5. Who is confused?
    Didn’t he mention that the second map represents a developing option? So, the first map shows the previous guidance; the second map reflects more recent guidance. Kinda makes sense that the two scenarios are separated in time, yes?

  6. We just got 2″ of snow in an hour from 5:30PM – 6:30 PM in Accord, NY after no more than 2″ from the start at around 12:15PM. I totally got the “band” experience after looking out the window an hour after I noticed it had started snowing again, big beautiful snow flakes in the light out on the deck. Loving it!

  7. When you are the primary caregiver for elderly parents who live a half hour away, and you are no spring chicken yourself, snow is a nightmare. Moving is not an option. I appreciate the hard work that goes into these forecasts and the great job these people do. This is my go-to website for weather and in my opinion the only forecast I trust. Thanks again !

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