HVW

Significant Rainfall Event Possible – Monday into Tuesday

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– Scattered showers developing late Sunday
– Localized pockets of torrential downpours possible
 
A very tricky forecast is shaping up for the Hudson Valley and Northeast over the next 72 hours. A weak stalled frontal boundary will interact with a weak low pressure system… and the result of the converging air could be some dramatic upward motion over portions of our area.
These type of events are notoriously challenging to forecast, because the dynamics at play could bring dramatically different results from one county to the next. We’ll obviously be watching closely and share updates as the event begins to unfold.
One of the concerns would be flash flooding… because if the scenario shown in the 3rd graphic unfolds, we could see several hours of heavy to torrential downpours over the same areas. With ground being so dry, the runoff could be too much to handle, and result in some localized rain totals Figuring out where those locations will be in advance is nearly impossible to forecast. So we should all expect periods of rain showers developing late Sunday… and continuing trough Monday. Some localized totals over 3″ can’t be ruled out

Holiday Weekend Forecast : Major Changes Coming

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The Hudson Valley is locked in the midst of an intense heatwave. Poughkeepsie set a record high of 103° on Thursday, and then on Friday we hit 101°, which was not a record, but was close to the 103° set in 1966. The humidity has made if feel even worse, with heat index values between 100° and 110°. But lets take a look forward to the Holiday weekend, and see if the heat persists.
 
– Independence Day – Saturday July 4th
Another hot and humid day expected… with heat and humidity building early. Temps should reach the low to mid 90s by noon… with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. We’ll watch for scattered showers & T-Storms to develop and move southward through the region between 3pm and 9pm. A few storms could become severe, with damaging winds and hail (slight risk 15% to 30%). We’ll watch for that and share updates as needed.
– Sunday July 5th
Skies will become mostly cloudy, with some scattered showers possible. The details are a little unclear, but if the showers overspread the region Sunday afternoon temps will be held in the 70s. Sunday afternoon doesn’t look like a washout, but outdoor plans could have a rain delay or two. If you have plans, the picture should become clearer on Saturday.
– Monday July 6th
A frontal boundary is expected to stall out over the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. At the same time, an upper level low pushes into the boundary, and is poised to spread rain showers… and periods of downpours possible Monday into Tuesday. After a scorching heatwave, Monday could be dramatically different… with highs struggling to get out of the 60s with periods of light to moderate rain. Monday is looking like a MUCH NEEDED complete washout, with periods of rain expected through the day. Rainfall totals could be significant… with 1 to 3 inches of rain possible, and some guidance suggesting some places could see 4 inches or more. This system likely lasts into Tuesday morning, before slowly improving during the afternoon. But the details with this will be very important… and the data should get more clear over the weekend.
A wild swing possible over the Holiday weekend… with scorching heat, turning into a cool, soaking rain by Monday? Keep checking in over the weekend to get updates on the details. Stay cool… have a Happy & Safe 4th of July!
-Bill

Wednesday Alert: EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT

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WHAT: Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 111° expected.
WHEN: 10am Wednesday – 8pm Friday
WHERE: Entire Hudson Valley
 
IMPACTS…
Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…
This has potential to be a multi-day extreme heat event with near record high temperatures and little overnight relief. This level of heat can be deadly for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Impacts to transportation infrastructure and electrical and water systems are also possible.
 
– HVW Commentary –
An intense, multi-day heatwave will begin on Wednesday across the entire Hudson Valley region. Partly cloudy skies and a strong dome of high pressure will allow heat and humidity to surge into the area. Afternoon highs should reach into the low & mid 90s, but because of dew points in the mid to upper 70s, the humidity will be oppressive! Expect ‘real feel’ heat index values between 100° and 110°!
 
These conditions can quickly become dangerous. Be sure to:
– Take frequent breaks from exposure to heat & humidity
– drink plenty of water / gatorade
– check on “at risk” people, make sure they’re comfortable.
We anticipate these conditions extending into Thursday & Friday… likely Saturday as well…
These conditions can quickly lead to heat exhaustion & heat stroke. Please use extreme caution. More updates to follow.
-Bill

Intense Heat Wave to Start the Month of July

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Temperatures in the Hudson Valley have been rather mild for the month of June, about 1 or 2 degrees above average. But as we head into the month of July, we’re about to see some MAJOR changes in the weather pattern. A large upper level ridge will settle over the eastern portion of the United States, and that will push extreme heat and humidity into the northeast and the Hudson Valley.
 
The work week begins as normal… with Monday and Tuesday expecting highs in the 80s. But the SW flow really kicks in on Wednesday, ushering in some very hot and humid air. 
– Wednesday, July 1st … is looking very hot, with hazy sunshine. Afternoon highs should reach into the mid and upper 90s across the Hudson Valley, with dew points in the low 70s… making for ‘real feel’ heat index values between 95° and 105°! There’s a slight chance for a late afternoon isolated T-Storm, due to the heat and humidity. We’ll keep our eyes on this as we get closer. (Poughkeepsie Record high = 99°)
– Thursday, July 2nd… will be dangerously hot and humid. Hazy sunshine with afternoon highs potentially around 100°… with heat index values between 100° and 105°! (Poughkeepsie record high = 97°)
– Friday, July 3rd… Hazy, hot and humid. Highs again between 95° and 100°, with heat index values potentially over 100°.
 
This intense heat wave will very likely result in Heat Advisories and/or Extreme Heat Warnings for Wed – Fri. Conditions like this can result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke very quickly if you’re not being extremely cautious.
– Be sure to take frequent breaks from the heat and humidity
– Drink plenty of fluids, (water / Gatorade)
 
These conditions will likely extend into the 4th of July as well… so for planning purposes, expect an intensely hot start to the month of July across the Hudson Valley. We will have more updates as we get closer, but the heat and humidity is very likely (90%+) to occur beginning Wednesday, and lasting into the weekend. The details we’ll work through over the coming days. But please factor these conditions into your plans now, so you’re not caught unprepared.

HVW Forecast: Stormy Start to the Work Week

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A storm system pushing east from the Ohio Valley will move into the Hudson Valley during the day on Monday…
– Scattered AM showers develop between 8am and noon
– Areas of steadier/heavier rain likely develop during afternoon hours
– Heavier rainfall totals may be in localized bands
– Rainfall totals of 0.50″ to 2.50″ expected, localized totals over 3″ possible
 
The rain pushes into parts of the Hudson Valley during the morning hours… but the rain looks light and scattered in nature during the AM hours. It may take until early afternoon for some areas to see measurable rainfall. As the afternoon progresses, bands of heavier & steadier rain are expected to develop across our region. Periods of rain… locally heavy at times, are possible through the evening hours… continuing through the night, likely tapering off near sunrise on Tuesday.
 
Rainfall is projected to have a wide range of totals, between 0.50″ and 2.5″. The graphic tells the story quite well. We believe that heavier bands of rain will fall over the Hudson Valley, and that some locations could see upwards of 3″. But the structure of this storm suggests that the outcome could be feast or famine. North or south of the axis of heaviest rain… you may see less than half an inch of rain. With the drought conditions across the Hudson Valley worsening… we could really use this soaking rainfall. We’ll watch closely to see if the axis of heavy rain shown on this graphic need to be updated.
 
Final note… if we get the expected localized heavier downpours to set up, the areas where those persist, could be at risk of flash flooding. Because the conditions have been so dry, it may seem odd to mention flash flooding concerns… but persistent heavy downpours may be too much for the ground to absorb, so we’ll be watching this potential closely.
 
We hope you have a great start to the week, despite the soggy Monday…

Evening Update: Unsettled Weather for Thursday

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After a couple gorgeous days, we’re going to see a strong southerly flow develop overnight, and that will usher in some warm and humid air to the Hudson Valley. Accordingly, the National Weather Service has our area in a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for Thursday.
 
– Wednesday Night… we’ll see clouds increase, and temperatures drop into the mid 60s. Humidity levels will increase, and scattered rain showers will develop after midnight. The best chance for steady rain showers will be in the Catskills and northern areas… but the entire region could see on and off rain showers extending into the morning commute on Thursday.
– Thursday… starts off cloudy, humid and damp, with scattered rain showers during the morning. Temperatures will climb into the 70s before noon with a persistent southerly flow.
The uncertainty in the forecast lies with what happens next. A cold front will approach the Hudson Valley between 12pm and 3pm. A strong southern flow ahead of it will bring warm and humid air into the region. The big question… will be how much sunshine we get in the late morning and early afternoon hours, prior to the arrival of the cold front. If we get enough sunshine, temperatures could jump into the mid 80s by early afternoon, and with the higher humidity, set the stage for a squall line of strong to severe T-Storms. Our region has a “Slight Risk” (roughly a 15% to 30% chance) of severe weather on Thursday. The primary concern is strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.
 
The situation requires close monitoring… because heat and humidity will be the fuel to any potential severe weather on Thursday. If clouds linger through the morning, air temperatures will be suppressed and the air mass could stabilize… reducing the potential for severe weather. So we’ll be watching closely and providing updates as Thursday morning progresses.
 
Have a nice evening and keep an eye out for updates between now & Thursday morning.

6pm Radar Update & Weather Discussion

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Cloudy skies are with us as of the 6pm hour in the Hudson Valley on this Sunday afternoon. A few scattered light rain showers can be seen popping up around the region. All of the major activity remains well off to our NW, associated with the approaching frontal boundary. Temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s, thanks to the clouds holding temps down. The humidity is noticeable, but real feel temperatures are generally in the low 80s around the Hudson Valley.

6pm NYS Radar Loop
6pm NYS Radar Loop

??TONIGHT’S WEATHER….
We’ll be tracking the approach of this frontal boundary through the evening. Expect mostly cloudy skies through the evening, with temperatures holding in the mid to upper 70s through midnight. The line of showers & T-Storms is projected to reach the Hudson Valley between 9pm and 1am. The squall line should reach areas west of the Hudson River between 9pm and 11pm. Areas east of the Hudson River should see showers & T-Storms arrive between 10pm and 12am.

The potential for severe weather continues to exist. At the time of this post, there are over a half dozen tornado warnings in western PA. The Hudson Valley remains under an area of “Slight Risk” for severe weather tonight… which is roughly a 15% to 30% chance of a severe T-Storm in our area. The main concerns are for damaging wind gusts over 50mph. Along with the severe threat, is the likelihood of heavy downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning.

We’ll continue to track this line of storms through the evening, and share updates as we get closer. Behind this front, we will see much lower humidity levels, and daytime temperatures in the mid 70s… which is much closer to where we should be for this time of year. Have a nice evening… and keep an eye on the radar, and additional updates.

Heat Advisory in Effect : Thursday & Friday

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The heat is on! Mid-morning temperatures already well into the 80s across the region, and the humidity is already quite oppressive. Real feel temps already in the 90s as of mid to late morning.
 
Today… expect hazy sunshine, mixing with clouds. Afternoon highs in the low 90s… but very high dew points in the low 70s will make it feel more like the upper 90s to near 100° this afternoon in the Hudson Valley. Accordingly… a Heat Advisory is in effect today and Friday. Make sure to use extra caution if working outside for extended periods of time…
– Stay hydrated… drink lots of water
– Take frequent breaks from strenuous activity outdoors
– Avoid extended exposure to the heat
Heat exhaustion can sneak up on you quickly in these conditions, please take it slow and use caution.
 
A chance for scattered showers & T-Storms late today and this evening. The National Weather Service has the Hudson Valley under a “Slight Risk” for severe weather today. That’s a roughly 15% to 30% chance of a Severe storm in the Hudson Valley. The main concern being damaging wind gusts and hail. The latest guidance keeps the line of showers & T-Storms off to our west until after sunset… and weakening them considerably before reaching our area. We’ll monitor this closely through the day… but the current guidance is good news.
 
Friday looks to bring a repeat of Thursday’s weather, with very similar conditions… so plan accordingly. We’ll share updates as needed later today. Stay cool friends!

Summer-Like Pattern : Heat, Humidity & T-Storms…

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A large ridge over the eastern US has allowed for heat and humidity to gradually build over the past few days. A deep upper level trough over the Mid-west will create a battleground between the heat and humidity over the east… and cooler & drier air pushing in from Canada. The end result… will be hot and humid conditions along the east coast… along with the chance of strong to severe T-Storms each day because of the instability generated from the upper low to our northwest.
 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
We have a hot and humid day in place across the Hudson Valley… with a good deal of clouds mixed in. Temps are in the mid 80s… but the elevated humidity is giving us “real feel” heat index values closer to 90°.
 
We’re beginning to see one or two pop up showers & T-Storm cells in the Catskills, but most of the region remains quiet as of mid afternoon.
As we move into the evening, we’ll be tracking a line of showers & T-storms pushing from west to east. The squall line should arrive in the western portion of the Hudson Valley between 6pm and 8pm… pushing east of the Hudson River by 9pm or 10pm… dissipating before midnight. This line will be weakening after sundown, so the best chance of a strong to severe storm would be west of the Hudson River… but even there the severe threat is marginal today (less than 15%). With that said, be prepared for a period showers, even a thunderstorm or two this evening.
 
?THURSDAY:
The heat really builds on Thursday… under a mix of clouds and sunshine. Afternoon temps will surge into the low and mid 90s. Thursday is likely to be our first really oppressive day of the season so far. The humidity will continue to increase, with dew points in the low 70s expected! Those kinds of dew points are very uncomfortable, and will make for “real feel” heat index values between 95° and 99°. Make sure to plan accordingly, and use caution if working or playing outside Thursday afternoon.
In addition… we’ll have scattered showers & T-Storms developing once again… very similar to Wednesday, just a bit more numerous. Strong to severe T-Storms will be possible, especially between 4pm and 8pm. Severe threat is a bit higher, with a “slight risk” expected (15% to 30% chance of a severe T-Storm in the Hudson Valley). Primary concerns will be for damaging wind gusts and hail… but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out (roughly 2% chance). We’ll track the situation and provide updates.
 
?FRIDAY:
Looks very similar to Thursday… hot and humid… highs in the low to mid 90s, and Heat Index values approaching 100°! We’ll also see scattered PM T-Storms, and a “slight risk” (15% to 30% chance) of severe T-Storms. Skies will be partly cloudy during the first half of the day… with increasing clouds during the afternoon. T-Storm threat looks highest between 4pm and 8pm again, but check back for details as we get closer.
 
Summer weather has settled into the Hudson Valley for this week. We’ll have updates for you along the way, as we track both the heat & humidity… and the threat for strong to severe T-Storms each day. Thanks for all your continued support!!

Thursday Afternoon Weather Update

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High pressure continues to dominate over the eastern half of the US. That has been responsible for the last few days of beautiful weather. This afternoon across the valley, we have mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the low to mid 80s… and afternoon highs today could climb another few degrees, into the mid & upper 80s. These temps are about 10 degrees above average for early June. Tonight… clouds will gradually increase, but it will remain dry. Overnight lows will be comfortable, in the mid 50s for most of us.
The heat will increase on Friday, as the high pressure continues to build. Expect a mix of sun and clouds on Friday, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90°. A dry, summer-like day to close out the work week.
Looking to the weekend…
A cold front will approach from Canada on Saturday. It will spread clouds, and an area of scattered rainfall toward the Hudson Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours (after 3pm most likely). The line of showers and thunderstorms should weaken as it moves toward us on Saturday evening, but we’ll need to monitor it. The details in terms of timing and rainfall will become more clear as we get closer… but for now, it looks like scattered showers Saturday evening.
Behind it, Sunday looks a bit unsettled… but some cooler temperatures and breaks of sun are expected… with highs in the 70s likely. We’ll give more details as we get closer… but for now, enjoy this beautiful late spring weather!

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